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Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA

EIA · Feb 8, 2011 · 41 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 1
    Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities NGA Center for Best Practices State Energy Working Group February 8, 2011 Richard Newell, Administrator
  2. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 2
    Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increased U.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas Industrial…
  3. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 3
    What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference Case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel…
  4. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 4
    Key updates included in the AEO2011 Reference case Natural gas and oil supply More than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources Updated offshore data and…
  5. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 5
    U.S. Energy Consumption Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 5
  6. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 6
    Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels; demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors 2009 total U.S. energy use = 94.6 quadrillion Btu Energy supply Energy demand Industrial Nuclear 30% Industrial 9%…
  7. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 7
    Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035 U.S. primary energy consumption Shares of total U.S. energy quadrillion Btu per year History 2009 Projections 125 Renewables…
  8. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 8
    Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 13% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger quadrillion Btu 200 Constant intensity Structural -33% 150 change Constant efficiency -13% Efficiency change…
  9. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 9
    Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History 2009 Projections 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 Energy per capita 0.75 Energy per dollar GDP 0.50 CO2 per dollar GDP 0.25 0.00…
  10. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 10
    In the AEO2011 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions grow almost 6% over 2005 levels by 2035 billion metric tons carbon dioxide History 2005 2009 Projections 7 6 Energy-related CO2 emissions 5 4 3 2005 2020 2035…
  11. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 11
    Electricity Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 11
  12. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 12
    In 2009, electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable 2009 Total net generation: 2009 Non-hydro renewable 3,953 billion kWh net generation: 141 billion kWh Other gases 0.3% Conventional Nuclear…
  13. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 13
    While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate of growth has slowed percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 2009 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10 2000-2009 0.5…
  14. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 14
    The projected electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, with generation from natural gas rising 37% and renewables rising 73% electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 6 5 4…
  15. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 15
    Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting 23% of projected electricity generation growth non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 450 400 350 300 Biomass 250 200…
  16. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 16
    Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035 2009 capacity Capacity additions Nuclear 2009 to 2035 101 (10%) Coal 313 (30%) Hydropower* Nuclear Hydropower* 3 (1%) 6…
  17. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 17
    Natural gas Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 17
  18. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 18
    Success in the Barnett prompted companies to look at other shale formations in the United States Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 18
  19. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 19
    U.S. shale gas production increased 14-fold over the last decade; reserves tripled over the last few years annual shale gas production trillion cubic feet per year 5 Eagle Ford (TX) 4 Marcellus (PA and other Eastern states)…
  20. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 20
    Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 3,000 2,552 2,500 Unproved shale gas 827 2,000 1,500 Unproved other gas 1,481…
  21. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 21
    Four-fold increase in shale gas production offsets declines in other U.S. supply, meeting consumption growth and lowering import needs U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 1% 25 Net imports 11% 20…
  22. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 22
    Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; a number of key economic and market drivers underpin natural gas consumption growth TCF gas Sector consumption Growth Key drivers (2009-2035) 2009 2035 Industrial, 7.3 9.3 26% +187%…
  23. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 23
    Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past years due to an expanded shale gas resource base natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2009 dollars per million Btu 10 2009 History Projections Updated AEO2009 8 AEO2010…
  24. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 24
    Oil and other liquid fuels Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 24
  25. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 25
    U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic productionincluding biofuelsand greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 25 4% Biofuels including imports 20…
  26. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 26
    Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key sources of increased domestic liquids supply U.S. liquid fuels million barrels per day Total consumption Net crude oil imports Net product imports Crude oil…
  27. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 27
    Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion gallon RFS target by 2030 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 45 Legislated RFS in 2022 40 Biodiesel 35 Net imports RFS with Other 30 adjustments under Advanced 25…
  28. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 28
    Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services Growth 2009 2035 (2009-2035) Light duty vehicles Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 8.9 10.2 15% Number of…
  29. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 29
    Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck sales millions History Projections 20 15 Conventional gasoline Diesel 10 Gaseous and fuel cell Mild hybrid electric Hybrid…
  30. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 30
    Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections 225 High oil price 200 175 150…
  31. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 31
    Other EIA activities Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 31
  32. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 32
    EIAs Energy and Financial Markets Initiative Collection of critical energy information to improve market transparency improved petroleum storage capacity data other improvements to data quality and coverage Analysis of energy and…
  33. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 33
    On Dec. 1, 2010, EIA started publishing much-improved data on petroleum products storage capacity Analysis of inventory levels in the context of storage capacity is important for understanding petroleum market activity and price…
  34. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 34
    Many factors influence the formation of oil prices and other energy prices Supply Physical balancing Demand Affected by current Inventories Affected by current conditions and future conditions and future expectations for: Markets &…
  35. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 35
    EIA portals provide State energy data in one convenient place State Energy Profiles feature Quick Facts to provide the most important State energy information Overviews and maps to explain each States energy markets Data tables to…
  36. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 36
    New this year for State Energy Profiles and State Energy Data System State Energy Profiles New maps of selected energy-intensive areas (June 2010) New dynamic graphs on State profile pages (in development) Website redesign…
  37. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 37
    Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) Only comprehensive source of energy-related characteristics and consumption across U.S. households Only EIA survey that collects household data; conducted every 4 years 1.40 Fuel use…
  38. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 38
    Expanded 2009 RECS RECS 2005 RECS 2009 4,382 completed interviews 12,083 completed interviews Low sampling precision for all Greater precision assured areas (census regions, divisions, for key geographies and States) statistics…
  39. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 39
    A new EIA.gov goes live this week New homepage and improved navigation Updated logo and new visual identity A new Today in Energy education product that: Publishes a daily release of timely and topical bites of our…
  40. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 40
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
  41. Annual Energy Outlook 2011 and an update on EIA activities – EIA – slide 41
    Some supply sources and demand sectors are strongly linked, while others are more dispersed 2009 Richard Newell, February 8, 2011 Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2009 41

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