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Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA

EIA · Mar 1, 2013 · 31 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 1
    Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. for Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference March 01, 2013 Houston, TX by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration…
  2. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 2
    Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy…
  3. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 3
    U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 Projections…
  4. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 4
    U.S. Shale Gas Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013 4
  5. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 5
    These three drivers impact resource estimation metrics differently over time in an iterative process Theory Experiment Practice Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth Geology Recompletions Drilling costs Technology Price of gas…
  6. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 6
    EIAs focus is on the timing of production; the modeling focuses on these parameters average initial production (IP) rate per well average decline curve (can vary by region and vintage) IP & decline curve define the Estimated…
  7. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 7
    Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new information, a combination of assessments and EIA updates U.S. dry gas resources Benchmark to USGS trillion cubic feet 2011 Marcellus Assessment Unproved shale gas Unproved…
  8. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 8
    U.S. wet natural gas proved reserves, 1980-2010 trillion cubic feet 350 300 250 200 U.S. Total 150 Lower 48 Onshore 100 Federal Offshore 50 Alaska 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source:…
  9. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 9
    EIA fits well production data to hyperbolic decline curves to estimate EUR Classic hyperbolic decline curve 2004 vertical well EUR=0.46 bcf (Arps 1945): Qi Qt = (1+ b Di t ) b 1 2011 horizontal well 1985 vertical EUR=1.76…
  10. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 10
    An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 1 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Adam…
  11. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 11
    For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013 11
  12. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 12
    Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of January 2013 and converted to dry…
  13. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 13
    Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections Shale gas Non-associated offshore Tight gas Alaska Coalbed methane Associated with…
  14. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 14
    Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease…
  15. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5…
  16. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada Lower 48 LNG exports Alaska LNG exports Source: EIA,…
  17. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 17
    Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections Consumption Domestic supply Net…
  18. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 18
    U.S. Tight Oil Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013 18
  19. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 19
    Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels 222.6 23.8…
  20. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 20
    U.S. crude oil plus condensate proved reserves, 1980-2010 billion barrels 35 30 U.S. Total 25 20 Lower 48 Onshore 15 10 Alaska 5 Federal Offshore 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 Source: U.S. Energy…
  21. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 21
    Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral…
  22. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 22
    U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil…
  23. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 23
    U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 2011 million barrels per day 4 3 net product 2 exporter exports 1 0 -1 net…
  24. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 24
    U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2011 Projections Consumption 37% 60% 45% Net imports Domestic supply Source: EIA, Annual…
  25. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 25
    Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day AEO2012 AEO2013 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release…
  26. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 26
    Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel History 2011 Projections High Oil Price…
  27. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 27
    Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable Global liquids supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 44% OPEC 40% Other non-OECD 31% 34% OECD 25% 26% Source:…
  28. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 28
    Global tight oil production comparisons IEO2013 DRAFT BP Energy Outlook 2030 million barrels per day Source: Preliminary International Energy Outlook 2013, BP Energy Outlook 2030 Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013 28
  29. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 29
    Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and tight oil Resource quantities and distribution Surface vs. mineral rights Risk appetite of industry participants Infrastructure and technology Environmental…
  30. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 30
    Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2012 Reference Case 15 Carbon Fee 25 Carbon Fee 2010 24% Natural gas 28%…
  31. Platts North American Crude Marketing Conference – EIA – slide 31
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…

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