U.S. Energy Outlook For Baltimore Chartered Financial Analyst Society April 08, 2013 Baltimore, MD By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 Projections 120…
U.S. Shale Gas Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 4
An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 2,000 Cumulative production = EUR 100% Haynesville…
For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08,…
Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US Bakken (ND) 25 Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) 20 Haynesville (LA and TX) 15…
Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 10 Alaska Coalbed methane…
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 *Includes combined heat-and-power and…
Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5…
The U.S. is projected to be both an exporter and importer of natural gas U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet 6 4 Exports to Mexico Exports to Canada 2 Lower 48 states LNG exports Alaska LNG exports 0 2010…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10…
U.S. Tight Oil Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 13
Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day 2.2 Eagle Ford 2.0 Bakken 1.8 Granite Wash 1.6 Bonespring 1.4 Monterey 1.2 Woodford 1.0…
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 STEO March 2013 U.S. crude oil…
U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 2011 million barrels per day 4 3 net product 2 exporter exports 1 0 -1 net…
U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2012 2014 Projections 25 20 Consumption 32% STEO forecast for 2014 37% 15 Net imports 40% 10 Domestic…
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6 4 2 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
Global tight oil production comparisons IEO2013 DRAFT BP Energy Outlook 2030 12 million barrels per day 10 Australia China Russia Argentina 8 Mexico Canada United States 6 4 2 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Source:…
U.S. Coal and Electricity Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 20
Over time the electricity mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables, but coal remains the largest fuel source U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 1993 History 2011 Projections 6 5 30% Natural gas 4 25%…
Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2012 Reference Case 15 Carbon Fee 25 Carbon Fee 5 5 5 2010 4 4 4 24% Natural gas…
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 2011 dollars per Btu 2011 8 10 History 2011…
U. S. electricity use and economic growth, 1950-2040 Percent growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) 2011 14% History Projections 12% 10% 8% Electricity Use 6% 2011 2040 4% average GDP 2.4% 2% 0.9% 0% -2% 1950 1960…
U.S. Renewables and Biofuels Adam Sieminski, Baltimore CFA Society April 08, 2013 25
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2011 Projections 600 Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible) 500 400 Wind…
Despite recent growth, ethanol and biodiesel provide a modest share of U.S. motor fuels biofuel consumption 12% 10% volume 8% Ethanol share of gasoline 6% energy 4% 2% Biodiesel share of distillate 0% 2000 2004 2008…
Biofuels grow at a slow rate due to lower near-term crude oil prices and slow growth in sales of high-percentage ethanol blends such as E85 renewable fuel standard credits billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 40 Legislated RFS in 2022…
In the AEO2013 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to their 2005 level carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2011 Projections 7 6 AEO2013 5 4 3 2005 2020 2040 (billion metric…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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