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NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA

EIA · Oct 13, 2010 · 19 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 1
    EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 13, 2010 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Richard Newell, NASEO Winter Fuels…
  2. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 2
    Overview EIA expects average heating bills to be 3% higher this winter than last an increase of 24 to a U.S. average of 986 per household Due to higher fuel prices forecast this winter compared to last 2% higher electricity prices…
  3. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 3
    U.S. households forecast to spend an average of 3% (24) more on heating bills this winter (October 1 March 31) Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel bill forecast than…
  4. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 4
    Winter 2010-11 heating season forecast is 3% warmer than last winter, and 1% warmer than 30-year average U.S. population-weighted heating degree-days NOAA winter 7.4% warmer than last year 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov…
  5. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 5
    Higher natural gas heating bills for some regions this winter Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using natural gas as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 63% 0 -3 -3 South…
  6. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 6
    EIA expects residential natural gas prices to be 6% higher this winter than last Dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) Forecast 25 Winter 20 Residential price 15 10 5 Henry Hub spot price 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010…
  7. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 7
    Future natural gas prices remain uncertain Henry Hub spot price STEO Henry Hub price forecast NYMEX Henry Hub futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence interval 95% NYMEX confidence interval Dollars per million Btu Forecast 14 12 10…
  8. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 8
    Less than 10% chance of natural gas price being higher than 5.50 per MMBtu for January 2011 contract month probability of exceedence 40% 35% 30% 20% 17% 10% 7% 0% 4.50 / MMBtu 5.00 / MMBtu 5.50 / MMBtu Richard Newell,…
  9. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 9
    Natural gas inventories are close to last years record-high levels Billion cubic feet Forecast 4,500 10% warmer 4,000 3,500 3,000 Normal 2,500 range 2,000 1,500 10% colder 1,000 500 Base case 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  10. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 10
    Winter electricity bill forecast shows little change from last winter Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using electricity as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 32% 0 -1 0…
  11. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 11
    Winter heating oil bills are likely to be higher in most regions Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using heating oil as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 1% 2 7 9 South 2%…
  12. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 12
    U.S. heating oil retail price forecast to average 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter Dollars per gallon Dollars per barrel 5.00 Forecast 200 Winter 4.00 150 Heating oil price 3.00 100 2.00 50 1.00 WTI crude oil…
  13. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 13
    Uncertainty over future heating oil prices is driven primarily by crude oil prices Heating oil average U.S. wholesale price STEO heating oil wholesale price forecast NYMEX N.Y. harbor heating oil futures prices 68% NYMEX confidence…
  14. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 14
    Less than 10% chance of wholesale heating oil price being higher than 2.75 per gallon for January 2011 contract month probability of exceedence 40% 30% 27% 20% 10% 10% 3% 0% 2.50 / gallon 2.75 / gallon 3.00 / gallon…
  15. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Going into winter, distillate inventories are well above the upper end of the normal range Million barrels Forecast 200 10% warmer 180 Base case 160 140 Normal range 120 100 10% colder 80 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  16. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Higher expected propane fuel bills in most regions Percent change from last winter (forecast) Households using propane as Average Total primary heating fuel Consumption price expenditures West 4% -1 11 10 South 4% -13 8 -6…
  17. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 17
    EIA forecasts residential propane prices will average 2.42 per gallon, 24 per gallon higher than last winter Dollars per gallon Forecast 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 Winter 1.00 0.50 0.00 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012…
  18. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Propane inventories are near the middle of the normal range Million barrels Forecast 80 10% warmer 70 60 50 Normal range 40 30 10% colder 20 10 Base case 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: EIA Short-Term Energy…
  19. NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 19
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…

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