U.S. Energy Market Outlook for The Energy Forum November 29, 2012 New York City, NY by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
My vision for the next four years at the Energy Information Administration Adam Sieminski 2 November 29, 2012
Basic principles: Better, faster, and cheaper data collection & analysis Adopt best practices More good people Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 3
EIA website: a wealth of data and analysis Today in Energy articles highlight a wide range of energy related topics: Key findings from EIA reports Technological impacts Current events and trends Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012…
EIA updates state level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets Interactive map links to state level energy data Source: EIA Adam Sieminski 5 November 29, 2012
EIAs Hurricane Sandy reporting Adam Sieminski 6 November 29, 2012
Significant energy infrastructure was threatened by the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy Power plants over 100 MW Source: EIA based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 7
Electric customer outages and restoration times from Hurricane Sandy power outages million customers 9 Other States New Jersey 8 7 New York Pennsylvania 6 Hurricane Irene total outages 5 4 3 2 1 0 Sandy 10/29…
New York City metropolitan area covered by emergency survey Source: EIA Emergency Gasoline Availability Survey Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 9
New York City metropolitan area gas station availability percent of gas stations 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2-Nov 3-Nov 4-Nov 5-Nov 6-Nov 7-Nov 8-Nov Operating No contact No power No gasoline supply Source: EIA Emergency…
New York harbor pipelines and terminals Adam Sieminski 11 November 29, 2012
Recent changes in the heating oil market Adam Sieminski 12 November 29, 2012
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13 Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other/no heating DC…
The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 4% warmer than the 30-year average, but 17% colder than last winter U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec…
Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu 30 history forecast natural gas heating oil 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004-05 2005-06…
Key issues in the domestic fuel markets Adam Sieminski 16 November 29, 2012
Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 in absolute terms, all fuels grow except petroleum liquids U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 120 Renewables (excluding biofuels) 100 11% 7% 4% 1% 80 Liquid…
Energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre- recession levels in the AEO2012 Reference case energy carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2005 2010 Projections 7 6 5 Energy-related CO2 emissions 4 2005 2020…
Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands Source: U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Department of the Interior s National Atlas of the United States Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 19
Domestic production of shale gas and tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) tight oil production for select plays billion cubic feet per day million barrels of oil per day 30 1.6 Rest of…
U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022 U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet History 2010 Projections 30 Net exports, 2035 5% Net imports, 2010 25 11% Consumption 20 Domestic production 15 1990 1995 2000…
Bakken production on federal, non-federal and BIA lands Source: EIA Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 22
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines moves even lower in various side case scenarios U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2010 Projections 25 Net 20 imports, Consumption 2035 High TRR/ Net…
Key issues in the global oil markets Adam Sieminski 24 November 29, 2012
Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 62 60 Non-OECD 50 48 46 OECD 40 40% 41 30 Other…
U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth over the next two years change in production from previous year million barrels per day 1.4 1.2 2012 2013 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6…
Estimated unplanned production disruptions among non- OPEC producers, through October 2012 thousand barrels per day 1400 1200 Yemen United States 1000 Syria Sudan/S. Sudan 800 North Sea 600 Mexico Colombia 400 China Canada 200…
2012 oil production million barrels per day 12 1.6 10 0.4 0.9 1.1 Other 8 Refinery Gains 2.4 NGL 6 Crude 9.9 9.9 4 6.2 U.S. Q4 estimate 6.7 mb/d 2 Crude oil 0 Russia Saudi Arabia United States Source: EIA, data through…
OPEC surplus crude oil production capacity million barrels per day 6 forecast 5 4 3 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2001-2011 average Surplus Capacity Source: EIA Short-Term Energy…
Systemic energy security risk issues Oil choke points Natural disasters Electric reliability concerns Refining capacity outages Other energy infrastructure issues Adam Sieminski November 29, 2012 30
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
Loading...
