The Energy Outlook and Climate Change Energy CFO Summit February 22, 2010, Miami, Florida Richard G. Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, Energy CFO Summit, February 2010 1
Overview Global energy outlook U.S. energy outlook EIAs analysis of HR 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) Richard Newell, Energy CFO Summit, February 2010 2
The Global Energy Outlook Richard Newell, Energy CFO Summit, February 2010 3
Non-OECD countries account for 82% of the increase in global energy use to 2030 800 OECD Non-OECD 678 700 637 596 600 552 508 59% Quadrillion Btu 500 472 400 49% 300 200 51% 41% 100 0 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025…
Renewables are the fastest growing energy source (but from a relatively small base) 250 Projections History 32% Liquids (including biofuels) 200 28% 36% Q u a d rillio n B tu 23% 150 Coal 27% Natural Gas Share of World…
Growth in worldwide economic activity, and population growth in some regions, drives increased energy use 6.5 Population 5.5 GDP per Capita 4.5 Energy Use per GDP 3.5 Percent per year 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 -1.5 i na…
Absent new policies, energy-related CO2 emissions grow 39% between 2006 and 2030 in EIAs reference case 45 Non-OECD 40 OECD 35 Billion Metric Tons 30 25.8 23.7 25 21.5 19.5 15.4 17.6 20 15 10 13.6 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2…
The U.S. Energy Outlook Richard Newell, Energy CFO Summit, February 2010 8
Non-fossil energy grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78% energy use in 2035 quadrillion Btu History Projections 120 Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 100 Liquid biofuels 80 Liquid fuels 60 Coal 40 20 Natural…
Energy and CO2 per dollar GDP continue to decline; per capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History Projections 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 Energy per capita 0.75 Energy per dollar GDP CO2 per dollar GDP 0.50 0.25 0.00 1980…
Growth in electricity use continues to slow 3-year rolling average percent growth Period Annual Growth History 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 Stru 1970s 4.7 12 ctur al C 1980s 2.9 han ge i 1990s 2.4 10 n Eco nom 2000-2008 0.9 y - Hi…
Renewables gain electricity market share; coal share declines billion kilowatthours and percent shares 6,000 History Projections 5,000 17.0 4,000 Renewable 9.1 20.8 Natural gas 21.4 3,000 2,000 48.5 Coal 43.8 Oil and other…
Assuming no new policies, growth in energy-related CO2 is driven by electricity and transportation fuel use 2008 2035 Buildings and Electric Power Electric Power Industrial Buildings and 2,359 (41%) 2,634 (42%) 1,571 (25%)…
EIA Analysis of HR 2454 The American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) Richard Newell, Energy CFO Summit, February 2010 14
ACESA requires 24.6- billion-metric-ton reduction in covered GHG emissions over 2012-2030; actual reductions could be smaller or larger depending on the use of offsets and banking behavior CO2-equivalent emissions, billion metric tons…
Main cases in EIAs analysis Case Name Assumptions Integrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of Basic ACESA. Same as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond Zero Bank 2030. Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy…
Energy sector reductions (2 bottom sections) vary with availability of offsets and low-emitting generation options Cumulative compliance, 2012-2030 (billion metric tons) Energy-Related CO2 Carbon Capture and Storage Non-Energy-CO2…
Projected allowance prices depend on the availability of offsets and low/no carbon electricity generation technologies (2007 dollars per metric ton CO2-equivalent) 200 Basic Zero Bank High Offsets 180 High Cost No International No…
The electricity sector dominates projected reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions (million metric tons CO2) 2030 6,000 Electric Pow er Transportation Industrial 5,000 2639 2433 Buildings 1886 1831 4,000 1573 1074 384 908…
Generation by 2030 shifts from conventional coal to nuclear, renewables, and fossil+CCS, though natural gas use grows dramatically if other options are limited (billion kilowatthours) Coal Coal w /CCS Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas w…
Efficiency programs and higher electricity prices reduce electricity demand growth Annual percent growth in electricity use 3.0% 2.5% 2.39% 2.0% 2007 to 2030 Growth 1.5% 1.0% 1.15% 0.90% 0.5% 0.64% 0.72% 0.72% 0.57% 0.56%…
Electricity prices stay near baseline through 2025 in all but one case, then rise to higher levels through 2030 (2007 cents per kilowatthour, all sectors average) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 Reference Basic Zero Bank 4 High Offsets…
Present-value GDP losses over 2012-2030 range from 0.2% to 0.4%; consumption losses range from 0.1% to 0.3% in 5 analysis cases. Impacts are much higher in the No International/Limited Alternatives case. Cumulative Change in Real GDP…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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