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Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA

EIA · Apr 16, 2015 · 54 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 1
    Energy Outlook 2015 for National Governors Association Governors Advisors Energy Policy Institute April 16, 2015 Alexandria, V.A. by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
  2. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 2
    Short-term Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 2
  3. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 3
    Oil prices rise from mid-2015 through mid-2016 in EIAs forecast however, the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price 25…
  4. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 4
    Total U.S. crude production is forecast to decline between 2Q15 and 1Q16; output growth then resumes growth in 2016, reflecting EIAs price forecast U.S. crude oil production growth by area cumulative growth compared with 4Q14 (million…
  5. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 5
    EIAs latest DPR forecasts May oil production below the April level in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara regions Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 5
  6. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 6
    North American oil production growth slows with lower oil prices but remains the main driver of global production growth world crude oil and liquid fuels production growth million barrels per day 2.0 Forecast 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0…
  7. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 7
    Govt deficits, high reliance on oil revenue, and asset coverage of govt spending are indicators of geopolitical stress exposure less risk more risk more risk less risk Source: EIA, International Monetary Fund (IMF),…
  8. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 8
    Various events could lead to changes in global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than the forecast Event Oil demand growth surprises to the upside (economy- or price-driven) Key OPEC producers…
  9. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 9
    U.S. gasoline demand is forecast to increase 1.6% percent in 2015 reflecting a combination of factors year over year quarterly U.S. gasoline demand growth percent change 5% forecast 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2010 2011…
  10. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 10
    Average household energy expenditures fall by 16% in 2015, then increase somewhat in 2016 (based on EIA price forecast) household energy expenditures dollars 5,000 4,568 4,534 3,805 4,090 393 417 4,000 404 394 1,422 1,464 Natural…
  11. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 11
    Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average 3.07/million Btu in 2015 and 3.45/million Btu in 2016 Henry Hub spot price dollars per million Btu 7 6 5 4 3 Historical Spot Price 2 STEO Forecast 1 NYMEX Futures Price 95% NYMEX…
  12. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 12
    Natural gas production is expected to increase by 3.8 bcf/day in 2015 and by 1.5 bcf/day in 2016 U.S. natural gas production and imports annual change billion cubic feet per day billion cubic feet per day 82 9 80 8 78 7 76 6 74 5 72 4 70…
  13. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 13
    Industrial and power sectors drive natural gas consumption growth in the forecast Natural gas consumption annual change billion cubic feet per day billion cubic feet per day 120 8 110 7 100 6 90 5 80 4 70 3 60 2 50 1 40 30 0…
  14. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 14
    Long-term Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 14
  15. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 15
    Key results from AEO2015 In most AEO2015 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 2030 for the first time since the 1950s U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection…
  16. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 16
    Key results from AEO2015 (continued) Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which remain below the…
  17. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 17
    Overview Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 17
  18. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 18
    Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO2015 Reference case than in AEO2014, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 160 AEO2014 120 AEO2015 80 40…
  19. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 19
    Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding liquid…
  20. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 20
    U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 40 30 20 10 Low Oil…
  21. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 21
    CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons History 2013 Projections 6,250 6,000 High Economic…
  22. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 22
    CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2013 Projections 2.0 2005 1.5 1.0 Energy use per…
  23. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 23
    Petroleum and other liquid supply Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 23
  24. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 24
    AEO2015 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of future crude oil price paths Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 250 High Oil Price 200 150 Reference 100 Low Oil Price 50 High…
  25. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 25
    U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2013 2013 2013 20 High Oil and Gas Low…
  26. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 26
    Growth of onshore crude oil production varies across supply regions, affecting pipeline and midstream infrastructure needs change between 2013 and 2040 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region million barrels per day 10…
  27. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 27
    Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2013 Projections 25 2020 2040 20 14% 17% 15 33% Natural…
  28. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 28
    Net liquid imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply in most AEO2015 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent…
  29. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 29
    In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 30 2030 2040 25 24% Diesel 31% 31%…
  30. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 30
    U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas History Reference…
  31. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 31
    Natural gas Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 31
  32. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 32
    Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 12 High Oil Price 9…
  33. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 33
    Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale gas and tight…
  34. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 34
    Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History Projections 35 Residential Commercial Transportation** Electric…
  35. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 35
    Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 2013 Projections 2013 16…
  36. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 36
    Electricity Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 36
  37. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 37
    Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 2013 to 2040 Period Average Growth__ U.S. electricity use and GDP Electricity use GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s…
  38. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 38
    Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% History 2013 Projections 6 1993 2025 2040 5 31% 4…
  39. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 39
    Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 750 600 450 Conventional Wind Hydroelectric Power 300…
  40. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 40
    Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours 1,250 2040 1,000 Wind 750 Solar…
  41. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 41
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
  42. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 42
    Preview of coming attractions Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 42
  43. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 43
    Upcoming: improved international energy web presence New data browser to replace IES Better map-based navigations and visualizations Consolidate CABs/CANs Status: dev integration Launch: beta in April Energy Outlook…
  44. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 44
    Upcoming: EIA-930hourly survey of electricity balancing authorities First near-real time report for EIA Dashboard view of the U.S. power grid Highly anticipated by EIA customers Status: dev largely complete; awaiting OES data to…
  45. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 45
    Upcoming: Final four reports on EIA crude oil exports Over the next two months, the final four reports will cover: 1) technical options for U.S. refineries to facilitate the processing additional light tight oil 2) implications of…
  46. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 46
    Now playing: Crude by rail and EIA-914data updates Both high priority Crude by rail due out with PSM, March 30 Updated 914 expected in June with new data collection Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 46
  47. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 47
    Now playing: New Microsoft Excel add-in for Windows Enables spreadsheet users inside and outside of EIA to pull recent EIA/FRED data into their existing workbooks Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 47
  48. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 48
    Supplemental slides Energy Outlook 2015, April 16, 2015 48
  49. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 49
    Technology and policy promotes slower growth of transportation energy demand delivered transportation sector energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 30 High Economic Growth Low Oil Price 28 High Oil and Gas…
  50. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 50
    Difference between U.S. natural gas and crude oil prices grows through 2040 energy spot prices 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 30 2015 2040 25 Brent crude oil spot price 20 Ratio: 15 3.1 Ratio: 5.1 10 Oil…
  51. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 51
    Level of net natural gas trade, including LNG exports, depends largely on resource levels and oil prices U.S. total net natural gas imports trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 5 10 0 0 Low Oil…
  52. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 52
    Industrial energy use rises with growth of shale gas supply industrial sector total delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu 2013 Projections 35 High Economic Growth 30 Reference Low Economic Growth 25 20 2010 2015…
  53. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 53
    Electricity prices increase with rising fuel costs and expenditures for electric transmission and distribution infrastructure average retail electricity prices 2013 cents per kilowatthour Projections 13 High Oil Price 12 Reference…
  54. Energy Outlook 2015 – EIA – slide 54
    Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips consumption leading to a balance in United States energy imports and exports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2020 2040 110 -1% Consumption…

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