Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day 4.0…
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States Refinery operations/investment Logistics infrastructure investment…
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale…
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 30 11.0 Electric 25 power 20 8.5 Industrial* 15 11.2 9.1 10…
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 Refining and 20 7 related 6 16 5…
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks natural gas use by mode trillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 900 2.5 800 Approximate crude oil equivalent, 700 (thousand…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 10 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per…
U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Projections 2012 30 2030 2040 25 20 44% 59%…
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 4 3 Distillate exports 2 Motor gasoline exports Total petroleum product net…
Although oil use is slightly increased in the High Resource case due to lower prices, net import dependence declines rapidly U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History Projections 2012 25 2005 2016 2040 High Resource 20…
China is now the worlds largest net oil importer net imports for China and the United States millions of barrels per day History Forecast 10 Mar-14 United States net imports 8 6 China net imports 4 2 0 Jan-11 Jul-11…
OPEC countries now account for most unplanned outages estimated unplanned crude oil production outages thousand barrels per day 3,500 3,000 Other Non-OPEC Non- 2,500 Syria OPEC 2,000 Sudan / S. Sudan Iraq 1,500 Nigeria 1,000…
Key findings of the EIAs International Energy Outlook 2013 With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040; half of the increase is attributed to China and India…
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year 7 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4…
Regional 10-year real GDP growth rates decade average percent per year 12% 2000-2010 10% 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% OECD Other Non-OECD China India World Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook…
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of world energy consumption out to 2040 world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200 Liquids 34% 23% Coal (including…
World net electricity generation continues to be led by coal trillion kilowatthours 45 40 35 Coal 30 25 20 Renewables 15 Natural gas 10 5 Nuclear 0 Liquids 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, International Energy…
World petroleum and other liquids production exceeds 100 MMbbl/d after 2025 million barrels per day 120 100 OPEC 80 60 Rest of non-OECD 40 Russia Rest of OECD 20 Canada United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040…
World natural gas production to keep growing trillion cubic feet 200 180 160 Rest of non-OECD 140 China 120 Middle East and North Africa 100 80 Russia 60 Rest of OECD 40 Canada 20 United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources Shale oil Shale gas rank country billion barrels rank country trillion cubic feet 1 Russia 75 1 China 1,115 2 United States 58 2 Argentina 802 3 China 32 3 Algeria 707…
Non-OPEC oil supply growth is concentrated in five countries non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day 14 2010 2040 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United Russia OECD Mexico/Chile States Europe Source:…
OPEC market share grows after 2025 world liquids production million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 60 62 50 Non-OPEC petroleum liquids 50 49 40 35 OPEC petroleum liquids 30 20 10 Nonpetroleum 2 5 0 1990 1995…
World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2010 Projections 25 20 Coal 15 Liquid fuels 10 Natural gas 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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