United States Energy Outlook and Policies Affecting the Outlook Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Netherlands Institute of International Relations The Hague March 7, 2008
Energy Information Administration EIA was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 Independent since its creation EIA does not promote, formulate, or take positions on policy issues Outlook is based on EIAs…
Revised AEO2008 reference case indicates that through 2030... U.S. energy demand grows at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent The energy efficiency of the economy improves at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent U.S. oil import…
Energy prices are expected to decline in the near term, then rise 2006 dollars per million Btu 35 History Projections 30 Electricity 25 20 15 Crude Oil 10 Natural Gas 5 Coal 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
World oil prices are higher than in previous projections 2006 dollars per barrel 120 History Projections 100 High Price 80 Reference 60 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030
U.S. energy consumption grows slowly quadrillion Btu 140 History Projections 120 118.0 111.0 Renewables 103.3 100 99.5 Nuclear Coal 80 60 Liquids 40 20 Natural Gas 0 2006 2010 2020 2030
The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption million barrels per day 18 History Projections 15 Transportation 12 9 6 Industrial 3 Residential and Commercial Electric Power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
Domestic crude oil production grows in the near term million barrels per day 8 History Projections 6 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Lower 48 Offshore Alaska 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Natural gas consumption grows over the next decade, then declines slowly trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 23.2 23.4 22.7 21.7 Transportation 20 Electric Power 15 Industrial 10 Commercial 5 Residential 0 2006 2010…
U.S. electricity consumption grows slowly in all sectors billion kilowatthours 6,000 History Projections 4,971 5,000 4,482 Industrial 4,037 4,000 3,814 3,000 Commercial 2,000 1,000 Residential 0 2006 2010 2020 2030
Natural gas generation offset by growth in coal, nuclear, and renewables billion kilowatthours 3,000 54 - percent of total 2,500 2006 2030 49 2,000 1,500 1,000 18 19 20 14 12 500 10 2 1 0 Coal Nuclear Natural Gas…
The strongest growth in renewable generation is in biomass and wind billion kilowatthours 350 302 300 288 2006 2030 250 200 164 150 126 100 50 32 39 22 26 15 16 8 1 0 Hydropower Geothermal MSW Biomass Solar Wind
A variety of fuel sources support the new renewable fuel standard billion credits 40 History Projections 35 Legislated RFS Table Values RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments 30 25 Liquids from Biomass Biodiesel 20 Net Ethanol Imports…
Carbon dioxide emissions grow at a slower rate million metric tons 3,500 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions 7,000 Electricity Coal 3,000 6,500 Natural Gas Petroleum 2,500 6,000 2,000 5,500 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1,500…
Key Uncertainties in the Projections Macroeconomic growth Energy prices Technological changes Government policy initiatives
U.S. Energy Policy (based on Department of Energy) Increasing Energy Security remains a top priority of the Bush Administration In 2001 the Administration issued the National Energy Policy with over 100 recommendations. The Energy…
Goal: Energy Security The Presidents initiatives further advance the Administrations goal to provide a long-term strategy to confront energy challenges in a balanced, comprehensive, and environmentally- responsible way through…
The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Improves Fuel Economy Sets national fuel standard at 35 miles per gallon by 2020, which will increase fuel economy standards by 40 percent and save billions of gallons of fuel Expands…
Energy Agenda for 2008 The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 goes a long way, but the President has remaining energy proposals: Electric Power: Generate electric power using increased cleaner coal technology, solar and wind…
U.S. Climate Change Policy Approach: Department of Energy Overview Harnesses the power of markets and technological innovation, maintains economic growth, and encourages global participation Reaffirms U.S. commitment to goal of…
Five Basic Elements Advancing climate science to reduce uncertainties Policies and measures to slow the growth in greenhouse gas emissions with a Presidential goal to improve U.S. greenhouse gas emissions intensity 18 percent from…
Major New Initiatives Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Executive Order Renewable fuels mandate Strengthening Federal 36 billion gallons of biofuel annually by government environmental, 2022, about 5 times current levels…
Scale of the Global Challenge: Why Developing Countries are Key Business-As-Usual CO2 Emission Projections by Region, gigatons per year 90 80 70 Africa Non-Annex I Emissions Middle East Non-Annex 1 60 Equal Annex I Latin…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008 Examples of Special…
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