Annual Energy Outlook 2010 Reference Case The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 14, 2009 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 1
How does the AEO2010 reference case handle public policy and technology Generally assumes current laws and regulations provisions sunset if specified (e.g., renewable tax credits expire) excludes potential future laws and…
Key updates included in the AEO2010 reference case Extended projection period to 2035 Changes in Federal and State laws and regulations revised handling of fuel economy standards to reflect the proposal for light-duty vehicles in…
Oil prices in the reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2010 will include a wide range of prices 2008 dollars per barrel History Projections 225 High oil price 200 175 150 AEO2009 reference 125 100 AEO2010 reference 75 50 Low…
Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the projection Oil and natural gas prices 2008 dollars per million Btu Ratio of oil price to natural gas price 25 20 5 Crude oil 15 10 4 5 U.S. natural gas wellhead 0 1990 1995…
Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 78 percent of total energy use in 2035 quadrillion Btu History Projections 120 Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 100 Liquid biofuels 80 Liquid fuels 60…
Energy and CO2 per dollar GDP continue to decline; per capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History Projections 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 Energy per capita 0.75 Energy per dollar GDP CO2 per dollar GDP 0.50 0.25 0.00 1980…
Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 15% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger quadrillion Btu 200 192 Constant intensity Structural 150 change Constant efficiency 133 Efficiency change 115…
U.S. reliance on imported liquid fuels is reduced by increased domestic production and greater fuel efficiency million barrels per day History Projections 25 20 Consumption 40% 45% 15 Net imports 60% 57% 10 Production 5…
Biofuels meet most of the growth in liquid fuels supply million barrels per day 25 History Projections Biofuels including imports 20 15 Petroleum supply Natural gas plant liquids 10 5 Net petroleum imports 0 1970 1975 1980…
Biofuels grow, but fall short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target in 2022, exceed it in 2035 billion gallon-equivalents 45 Legislated RFS in 2022 Renewable diesel 40 Biomass-to- 35 RFS with liquids adjustments under 30 Biodiesel…
New light duty vehicle efficiency reaches 40 mpg by 2035 miles per gallon 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 History AEO2010 10 Updated AEO2009 reference case 5 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009…
Mild and full hybrid systems dominate new light-duty vehicle sales by 2035 millions History Projections 10 9 Electric/fuel cell 8 Plug-in hybrid electric 7 Hybrid electric 6 Mild hybrid electric 5 Gaseous 4 Flex fuel 3 Diesel…
Natural gas wellhead price is projected to rise from low levels experienced during 2008-2009 recession 2008 dollars per thousand cubic feet History Projections 10 8 6 4 AEO2010 reference case 2 Updated AEO2009 reference…
Import share of natural gas supply declines as domestic supply grows trillion cubic feet History Projections 30 25 Consumption 6% 2% Net imports 13% 20 Domestic supply 15 AEO2010 reference case Updated AEO2009 reference…
Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources trillion cubic feet 2250 2000 Unproved shale gas & other unconventional 1750 1500 1250 Unproved 1000 conventional…
Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs trillion cubic feet History Projections 25 Alaska 20 Shale gas Coalbed methane 15 Non-associated onshore 10…
Growth in electricity use continues to slow 3-year rolling average percent growth Period Annual Growth History 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 Stru 1970s 4.7 12 ctur al C 1980s 2.9 han ge i 1990s 2.4 10 n Eco nom 2000-2008 0.9 y - Hi…
Natural gas and renewables account for the majority of capacity additions from 2008 to 2035 2008 capacity Capacity additions 2008 to 2035 Hydropower* Hydropower* 99 (10%) 1 (0.4%) Nuclear Coal 8 (3%) Coal Nuclear 312 (31%) 31…
Renewables gain electricity market share; coal share declines billion kilowatthours and percent shares 6,000 History Projections 5,000 17.0 4,000 Renewable 9.1 20.8 Natural gas 21.4 3,000 2,000 48.5 Coal 43.8 Oil and other…
Nonhydropower renewable sources meet 41% of total electricity generation growth from 2008 to 2035 billion kilowatthours 600 History Projections 500 400 Biomass 300 200 Wind 100 Solar Geothermal 0 Waste 1990 1995 2000 2005…
Assuming no new policies, growth in energy-related CO2 is driven by electricity and transportation fuel use 2008 2035 Buildings and Electric Power Electric Power Industrial Buildings and 2,359 (41%) 2,634 (42%) 1,571 (25%)…
Key results from the AEO2010 reference case Recent Federal and State policies, and rising energy prices, moderate growth in energy consumption and shift it to renewable fuels U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2035…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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