Oil Market Assessment and Projections Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Department of State Washington, DC July 20, 2007 1
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 100 90 History Projections 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 2 Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2007
World Oil Surplus Production Capacity (million barrels per day) 6.0 History Projections 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1997 Average 3 Short-Term Energy Outlook,…
World Oil Consumption Growth (million barrels per day) 1.6 History Projections 1.1 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.6 0.1 2006 2007 2008 -0.4 -0.9 OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union & E. Europe Other *Organization for Economic…
World Oil Consumption Growth (million barrels per day) History Projections 3.0 90 88 2.5 86 2.0 Rest of World 84 Oil Demand 1.5 United States 82 World Oil Growth 80 Demand 1.0 78 0.5 China 76 74 0.0 72 -0.5 70 1991- 2000…
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks 60 History Projections 58 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 56 54 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook, July 2007
U.S. Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) 1.20 History Projections 6.0 1.00 5.0 0.80 4.0 0.60 3.0 0.40 2.0 0.20 1.0 0.00 0.0 -0.20 -1.0 -0.40 -2.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Total Change (left axis)…
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices (cents per gallon) 360 History Projections 330 300 270 240 210 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 WTI Crude Oil Wholesale Gasoline Retail Regular…
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) 100 History Projections 80 High Price 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 9 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 and International Energy…
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections Liquid Fuels 50 40 Coal 30 Natural Gas 20 Nuclear 10 Renewables 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 10 Annual…
U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Deepwater Offshore Alaska Shallow Water Offshore 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 11…
Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Imports (million barrels per day) 30 Low Price History Projections 25 High Price 20 49% 61% 67% Consumption Net Imports 15 60% High Price Production 10 Low Price 5 0 1980 1990…
World Marketed Energy Use (quadrillion Btu) 450 History Projections 404 400 350 Non-OECD 298 300 240 250 OECD 200 207 150 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 13 International Energy Outlook…
Average Annual GDP and Population Growth for Selected Regions, 2004-2030 (percent per year) 7.5 6.5 GDP 5.5 Population 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 -0.5 a a es il pe st ea an ia a ri c di az…
World Marketed Energy Use, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 34% Liquids 28% 200 38% Coal 24% 150 26% Natural Gas Share of World 100 Total 23% Renewables 8% 50 7% 6% 6% Nuclear 0 1980 1985 1990…
World Liquids Consumption, 2004 and 2030 (million barrels per day) North America Non-OECD Asia OECD Europe OECD Asia Central and South America Middle East 2004 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 2030 Africa 0 5 10 15 20 25 30…
World Liquids Production, 2004-2030 (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 120 118 Total 100 80 60 Non-OPEC (Conventional) 54 53 40 OPEC (Conventional) 20 Unconventional 10 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018…
Non-OPEC Producing Regions with More than a One-Million-Barrel-per-Day Increase in Production, (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 14 11.5 2005 12 10.2 2030 10 9.5 8.2 8 7.3 5.7 6 5.1 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.7 4 3.1 2.6 2.1…
OPEC Conventional Liquids Production (million barrels per day) 40 37.5 35 30 25 23.5 2005 20 2030 15 9.2 10 4.9 4.0 3.8 5 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.7 0 Asia Middle North West South East Africa Africa America 19 International…
World Unconventional Liquids Production, 1980-2030 (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 12 History Projections 10 Other Gas-To-Liquids 8 Coal-To-Liquids Biofuels 6 Ultra Heavy Crudes Canadian Oil Sands 4 2 0 1980 1990…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…