Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas IAEE/AEA Meeting January 4, 2014 Philadelphia, PA By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Key insights on drilling productivity and production trends The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources Six tight oil and shale gas plays taken together account for…
Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in oil and natural gas production Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report Adam Sieminski, IAEE/AEA January 4, 2014 3
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. shale and tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels per day billion cubic feet per day 2.8…
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States: Refinery operations/investment Logistics infrastructure investment…
Natural gas Adam Sieminski, IAEE/AEA January 4, 2014 6
U.S. natural gas prices remain well below crude oil prices energy spot prices 2012 dollars per million Btu History 2012 Projections 30 2018 2040 25 20 Brent crude oil spot price Ratio: 15 3.2 Ratio: Oil to gas 7.1 price ratio:…
Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale gas 60…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 30 11.0 Electric 25 power 20 8.5 Industrial* 15 11.2 9.1 10 1.7…
Manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 Refining and 20 7 related 6 16 5 Bulk…
Natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks natural gas use by mode trillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 900 2.5 800 Approximate crude oil equivalent, 700 (thousand barrels…
U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 10 2025 25 8 5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) 20 6 Pipeline…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Petroleum Adam Sieminski, IAEE/AEA January 4, 2014 14
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 10 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per…
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Projections 2012 30 2030 2040 25 20 44% 59%…
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 4 3 Distillate exports 2 Motor gasoline exports Total petroleum product net…
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 25 2005 2016 2040 20 Consumption 25% 32% 15 40% 60% Net imports 10 Domestic…
Energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level over the projection period carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2012 Projections 7 2005 6 5 4 3 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…