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Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA

EIA · May 18, 2015 · 36 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 1
    Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix for Natural Gas Power Generation US May 18, 2015 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration…
  2. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 2
    U.S. Energy Information Administration Statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy Produces monthly short-term and annual long-term projections Produces special analyses of emerging issues and regulatory…
  3. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 3
    Short-term Energy Outlook 2015 May 18, 2015 3
  4. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 4
    U.S. Monthly Net Electric Power Generation, 2010 - 2016 U.S. electricity generation by energy source gigawatthours per day 6 forecast 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Coal Natural gas Nuclear…
  5. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 5
    In EIAs forecast, coals share of summer generation falls to historic low while natural gas and renewables match or exceed record highs average daily power generation, by fuel source, April through October billion kilowatt hours per day…
  6. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 6
    Coal plant retirements have had minimal impact on gas use for generation to date Recent and near-term coal retirements have operated at below-average capacity factors Average capacity factor for coal plants is 58% Low natural gas…
  7. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 7
    EIA forecast for Henry Hub prices is slightly above the Nymex strip through 2016; however, confidence intervals based on options values suggest a wide band of uncertainty in price projections Henry Hub spot price dollars per million…
  8. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 8
    Industrial and power sectors drive natural gas consumption growth in the forecast Natural gas consumption annual change billion cubic feet per day billion cubic feet per day 120 8 110 7 100 6 90 5 80 4 70 3 60 2 50 1 40 30 0…
  9. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 9
    Long-term Energy Outlook 2015 May 18, 2015 9
  10. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 10
    AEO2015 underpinnings Reference case: assumes current laws and regulations - Reinstatement of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after the court's announcement of intent to vacate the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) -…
  11. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 11
    Key results from AEO2015 In most AEO2015 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 2030 for the first time since the 1950s U.S. energy consumption grows at a modest rate over the projection…
  12. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 12
    Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding liquid…
  13. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 13
    Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 2013 to 2040 Period Average Growth__ U.S. electricity use and GDP Electricity use GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s…
  14. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 14
    Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% History 2013 Projections 6 1993 2025 2040 5 31% 4…
  15. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 15
    Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability & technology and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 12 High Oil…
  16. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 16
    With lower natural gas prices in the High Oil and Gas Resource case, coal is displaced as the leading generation source before 2020 net electricity generation trillion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 2.5 Natural gas: High…
  17. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 17
    In 2013, the average delivered price of coal to electricity generators varied widely across U.S. regions transport costs are a key reason Delivered coal prices, 2013 dollars per million Btu 3.98 2.42 2.52 2.43 N/A 1.69 1.74…
  18. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 18
    Cumulative additions to electricity generation capacity by fuel in six cases, 2013-2040 capacity additions gigawatts 500 Other Other renewables 400 Solar Wind 300 Nuclear 200 Natural gas/oil 100 Coal 0 Reference Low Economic…
  19. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 19
    Cumulative coal-fired capacity retirements, 2014-40 gigawatts 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Reference Low Economic High Economic Low Oil Price High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Growth Growth Resource Source: Annual Energy Outlook…
  20. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 20
    Electricity generation by fuel in six cases, 2013 and 2040 electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 6 Oil/Other 5 Nuclear Renewables 4 3 Natural gas 2 1 Coal 0 2013 Reference Low Low Oil High Oil High Oil High…
  21. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 21
    Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 750 600 450 Conventional Wind Hydroelectric Power 300…
  22. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 22
    Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours 1,250 2040 1,000 Wind 750 Solar…
  23. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 23
    The proposed Clean Power Plan for existing units under 111(d) is not a simple emission rate standard for existing units; provisions affecting the denominator in compliance calculations play a key role Additional elements included in…
  24. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 24
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
  25. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 25
    Key takeaways regarding the outlook for natural gas storage levels Natural gas storage is substantially higher than at this time last year: End-of- March 2015 inventories total an estimated 1,471 Billion cubic feet (Bcf), compared to…
  26. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 26
    Forecast for natural gas consumed in the electric power sector is about 11% greater than last summers levels, but 4% below 2012s record high levels consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in the U.S. billion cubic feet…
  27. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 27
    U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 40 30 20 10 Low Oil…
  28. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 28
    CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons History 2013 Projections 6,250 6,000 High Economic…
  29. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 29
    CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2013 Projections 2.0 2005 1.5 1.0 Energy use per…
  30. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 30
    Electricity prices increase with rising fuel costs and expenditures for electric transmission and distribution infrastructure average retail electricity prices 2013 cents per kilowatthour Projections 13 High Oil Price 12 Reference…
  31. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 31
    Average delivered coal prices to electric generators in six cases, 1990-2040 average delivered coal price 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 3.5 High Oil Price 3.0 High Economic Growth 2.5 Reference Low Economic…
  32. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 32
    From April through June 2015, over 10.6 GW of coal generation capacity is scheduled to retire Energy Outlook 2015 May 18, 2015 32
  33. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 33
    From April through October 2015, nearly 4.1 GW of natural gas generation capacity is under construction Energy Outlook 2015 May 18, 2015 33
  34. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 34
    Upcoming: EIA-930hourly survey of electricity balancing authorities First near-real time report for EIA Dashboard view of the U.S. power grid Highly anticipated by EIA customers Status: dev largely complete; awaiting OES data to…
  35. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 35
    Electricity generation by fuel in the AEO2015 and AEO2014 Reference cases, 2013, 2020, 2030, and 2040 electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 6 Petroleum/other 5 Nuclear 4 Coal 3 Renewables 2 Natural gas 1 0…
  36. Energy Outlook 2015: Focus on the Electricity Supply Mix – EIA – slide 36
    Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO2015 Reference case than in AEO2014, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 160 AEO2014 120 AEO2015 80 40…

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