World Oil Market Outlook Guy F. Caruso Energy Information Administration guy.carusoeia.doe.gov Institute of International Finance Economic Advisory Committee November 3, 2005 Washington, DC
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 80 History Projections 70 10% Colder 60 50 10% Warmer 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2005
Retail Heating Oil Prices (cents per gallon) 350 History Projections 10% Colder 300 250 200 10% Warmer 150 100 50 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2005
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 1.6 History Projections 1.4 1.2 3.2% 1.5% 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union & E. Europe Other…
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 3.0 2.5 History Projections 2.0 1.5 United States 1.0 0.5 China 0.0 -0.5 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1999 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2005
Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Prices and Strained Supply 2005 dollars per barrel million barrels per day 70 14 History Projections 60 12 WTI Spot Price World Excess Production Capacity 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4…
World Oil Spare Production Capacity (million barrels per day) 6.0 History Projections 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1997 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2005
OECD Commercial Oil Stocks (billion barrels) End-of-Month Inventories 3.00 2.90 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 2.80 2.70 2.60 2.50 2.40 2.30 2.20 2.10 2.00 Ju 2 Ju 3 Ju 4 Ju 5 Ju 6 Ja A 2 O Ja…
Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks Days of Supply of Inventories Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 60 59 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 Ja Ap Ju O Ja Ap Ju O Ja Ap Ju O Ja Ap Ju O Ja Ap Ju O n- r-…
The Worlds 15 Largest Oil Producers, 2004 (million barrels per day) Saudi Arabia Russia United States Iran Mexico China Norway Canada Venezuela United Arab Emirates Kuwait Nigeria United Kingdom Iraq Brazil 0.0 2.0 4.0…
U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day) History Projections 800 3.5% 600 2.2% 400 200 -0.9% 0 -200 -400 2004 2005 2006 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Short-Term Energy Outlook,…
U.S. Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) 1.20 History Projections 6.0 1.00 5.0 0.80 4.0 0.60 3.0 0.40 2.0 0.20 1.0 0.00 0.0 -0.20 -1.0 -0.40 -2.0 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Total Change (left axis)…
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (million barrels) 350 History Projections End-of-Month Inventories 330 310 290 270 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 250 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Short-Term Energy…
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 38% 200 Share of Natural Gas 25% World Oil 24% 150 Total Coal 100 Renewables 8% 50 5% Nuclear 0 1970 1975 1980…
World Oil Consumption and Production, 2002, 2010, and 2025 (million barrels per day) Consumption Production 140 Mature Market Economies Other Emerging Asia Transitional Economies Other 119.2 OPEC 118.9 120 100 94.6 94.3 80 78.2…
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