Oil and Gas Outlook For Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 Palm Beach, FL By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
Recent research Growth in light sweet crude oil production U.S. supply of lighter API gravity crude will continue to outpace that of medium and heavier crudes; more than 60% of EIAs forecast of production growth for 2014 and 2015…
These seven regions accounted for 95% of U.S. oil production growth and all U.S. natural gas production growth from 2011-2013 Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014…
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day Eagle…
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day 2012 40 history projections 100…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35.0 history projections 30.0 25.0 11.0 electric power 20.0 8.5 15.0 industrial*…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day history 2012 projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference case High Oil and Gas Resource case billion cubic trillion cubic feet per year trillion cubic feet per year feet per…
Key Takeaways from Updated EIA Study of added LNG exports Prices: Projected average natural gas prices at the producer level average 4% to 11% above the Reference case projection across export scenarios over 2015-40, while residential…
Resource and technology assumptions have major implications for projected U.S. crude oil production beyond the next few years Reference case High Oil and Gas Resource case million barrels per day million barrels per day 2012 14 2012…
U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages estimated unplanned crude oil production outages million barrels per day 4.0 U.S. Production growth* 3.5 Other Non-OPEC 3.0 Non- Syria OPEC 2.5 Sudan / S. Sudan 2.0…
U.S. rail carloads of crude oil and petroleum products exceed 1.5 million b/d in 2014 number of rail carloads per week million barrels per day 18,000 1.8 16,000 1.6 14,000 1.4 12,000 1.2 10,000 1 8,000 0.8 6,000 0.6 4,000 0.4…
Growing U.S. oil production and rising demand in China have together made China the worlds largest net oil importer net imports for China and the United States million barrels per day Aug-14 10 history projections 9 U.S. net imports…
U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent 60.0 30 United States…
Effect of low oil prices on U.S. shale oil production US+CA, oil+NGLs from tight plays (kbbld) Brent-indexed breakeven prices: Source: Rystad Energy North America Quarterly Shale Report Independent Petroleum Association of…
U.S. is already a major net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product net exports million barrels per day 3 2 2015(e) 1 0 -1 -2 -3 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014…
Key observations from EIAs analysis of the relationship between gasoline and crude oil prices Prices of Brent crude oil, an international benchmark, are more important than the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a domestic…
Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day history forecast 10 9 8 7 6 API 50+ 5 API 40-50…
Crude oil and associated liquids contain a wide variety of hydrocarbons Source: EIA via Harvey Crude Assay Management System Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 19
Distillation processes and resulting products processed products for domestic use or exportable without license processed finished petroleum products and other condensate processed hydrocarbon liquids EIA Refinery Survey other…
In the AEO reference case, annual carbon dioxide emissions rise slowly, but remain below levels reached in the 2000s Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 21
EIA projects declines in carbon dioxide emissions for all sectors except industrial relative to 2005 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Independent Petroleum Association of America November 13, 2014 22
Coal continues to account for the largest share of global energy- related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2010 Projections 50.0…
Areas of uncertainty in the outlook Oil prices Chinas energy demand growth; particularly in transportation Increasing global trade of natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids in addition to oil Global development of tight oil and…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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