Effects of low oil prices February 12, 2015 Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Historical and projected oil prices Crude oil price price per barrel (real 2010 dollars) 140 120 Prices shown are quarterly averages: dashed lines are EIA projections 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998…
Key takeaways Oil prices: EIAs forecast for Brent averages 58/b in 2015 and 75/b in 2016. The market-implied 95% confidence band for Brent (estimated from WTI futures and options prices) is extremely wide with a range from 35/b to 100/b…
Brent crude oil prices were relatively stable through the first half of 2014; increased oil supply and lower global economic growth expectations lowered prices from July 2014 to January 2015 dollars per barrel Stable demand and Potential…
Oil prices rise from mid-2015 through mid-2016 in EIAs forecast however, the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast 25 NYMEX Futures…
Global oil demand tracks world GDP growth annual percent change 6% World GDP growth 5% World oil demand growth 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: U.S.…
Global liquids consumption growth is forecast at 1.0 million bbl/d in both 2015 and 2016 World liquid fuels consumption annual change million barrels per day million barrels per day 96 Change in U.S. consumption (right axis) 8 Forecast…
U.S. gasoline demand to increase by about 1% in 2015 year over year quarterly U.S. gasoline demand growth percent change 5% forecast 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Energy…
Experience during the 2008-09 suggests only a modest shale oil production response to a short-term decline in oil prices dollars per barrel thousand barrels per day 140 280 ND Production WTI 120 240 100 200 80 160 60 120 40…
North American oil production growth slows with lower oil prices but remains the main driver of global production growth World crude oil and liquid fuels production growth million barrels per day 2.0 Forecast 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5…
Global oil demand million barrels per day 110 Other non-OECD Non-OECD Asia OECD Total 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: U.S.…
Govt deficits, high reliance on oil revenue, and asset coverage of govt spending are indicators of geopolitical stress exposure oil revenue (% of total govt revenue) asset coverage (months of 2013 govt spending) 100 Libya 45 less risk…
Various events could lead to changes in global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than the STEO forecast Event Social unrest in Venezuela leads to supply disruptions ISIL disrupts Iraqi exports…
Lower oil prices are expected to provide an immediate boost to the economy Starting from a base price of roughly 100 per barrel, a 10 drop in oil prices sustained for four quarters is estimated to raise real GDP by about 0.22% above…
Average household energy expenditures fall by 17% in 2015, then rebound somewhat in 2016 (based on EIA price forecast) household energy expenditures dollars 5,000 4,568 4,534 3,750 4,086 393 416 4,000 403 392 1,422 1,464 Natural…
Long-term scenarios Our preliminary analysis contrasts a sustained lower price case (LPC), real prices in the neighborhood of 70 per barrel through 2040, with a higher price case (HPC) where real prices rise steadily towards 150 per…
Supplemental Slides Effects of low oil prices February 12, 2015 18
U.S. regional refinery capacity and complexity 0.3 0.4 2.9 Rocky Mountain No coker With million barrels per day 1.2 coker Midwest No coker With million barrels per day coker East Coast million barrels per day 1.0 West…
Projected U.S. Refinery Projects Through 2019 Crude Capacity Changes Unit Capacities in Thousands of Barrels per Day PADD 2 Expected Light State Company Location Heavy Medium Light Sour Total Completion Sweet OH Marathon Canton 2014…
Projected U.S. Refinery Projects Through 2019 Crude Capacity Changes Unit Capacities in Thousands of Barrels per Day PADD 1 Expected State Company Location Heavy Medium Light Sour Light Sweet Total Completion NJ Axeon Specialty…
New condensate splitter projects in the United States Capacity Est. Cost2 Project State Completion Status (Mbbl/sd) (MM) Kinder Morgan - Galena Park 50 Texas 180 2015 under construction Kinder Morgan - Galena Park 50 Texas 180…
Tri-lateral cooperation: Canada, Mexico, & United States memorandum of understanding signed 12/15/2014 1) Reconciliation of import and export information on energy flows. The working group would develop a cross reference for terminology…
North American border crossing points for electricity and oil and natural gas pipelines Effects of low oil prices February 12, 2015 24
Oil and currency markets reflect expectations for lower global economic growth dollars per barrel index value 130 96 120 94 110 92 100 90 90 88 80 86 70 84 60 82 50 80 40 78 Brent front month price U.S. dollar index 30 76…
The recent drop in Brent prices broke through technical support levels Brent price (/bbl) 130 120 Fibonacci retracement levels 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Source: EIA,…
Total U.S. crude production is projected to be 740,000 higher in 4Q16 than in 4Q14, growth is driven by Lower 48 and Federal GOM production and offset by declines in Alaska U.S. crude oil production growth by area cumulative growth…
Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average 3.05/million Btu in 2015 and 3.47/million Btu in 2016 Henry Hub spot price dollars per million Btu 7 6 5 4 3 Historical Spot Price 2 STEO Forecast 1 NYMEX Futures Price 95% NYMEX…
Natural gas production is expected to increase by 2.4 bcf/day in 2015 and by 1.8 bcf/day in 2016 U.S. natural gas production and imports annual change billion cubic feet per day billion cubic feet per day 80 8 78 7 76 6 74 5 72 4 70 3 68…
Industrial and power sectors drive natural gas consumption growth in the forecast Natural gas consumption annual change billion cubic feet per day billion cubic feet per day 110 8 100 7 90 6 80 5 70 4 60 3 50 2 40 1 30 0 20 -1…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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