Energy Exports for Benposium 2015 June 9, 2015 Houston, Texas by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Key Takeaways In most of EIAs current projection cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end for the first time since the 1950s Strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight…
Key takeaways HGL exports drivers looking forward production of HGLs, primarily linked to natural gas production domestic consumption of HGL feedstock spreads between domestic and global prices economics of ethane rejection Crude…
How we got here and where we might be going Benposium2015, Energy exports June 9, 2015 4
U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 40 30 20 10 Low Oil…
Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 2013 Projections 2013 16…
Net liquid imports are a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels use in most AEO2015 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net liquids exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent…
U.S. net imports of crude oil and petroleum products declined by more than 7 million b/d over the past decade U.S. imports and exports of crude oil and petroleum products thousand barrels per day 16,000 14,000 12,000 imports 10,000…
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Benposium2015, Energy exports June 9, 2015 9
Growth in U.S. HGL production from natural gas plants is outpacing marketed gas production growth Production indexed to Jan. 2008 History Forecast 2.0 Natural gas plant liquids production 1.8 Natural gas marketed production 1.6…
U.S. propane exports have grown in the past few years; exports averaged over 500 kb/d in the first quarter of 2015 U.S. imports and exports of propane thousand barrels per day 800 exports 600 400 imports 200 0 -200 net imports…
Current U.S. propane/butane export capacity is fully utilized as exports continue to rise Monthly exports thousand barrels per day 900 Butanes Exports 800 Propane Exports 700 600 500 Non-ref export capacity 400 Refrigerated…
Significant discounting of HGL prices in North American markets persists International propane prices International butane prices U.S. dollars per gallon U.S. dollars per gallon 3.00 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.50…
Domestic HGL prices have broken from historical linkage to refined petroleum product prices Gulf Coast spot prices dollars per million Btu 30 25 20 Motor Gasoline Natural Gasoline 15 Iso-Butane Normal Butane 10 Propane…
U.S. and Canadian petrochemical industry is responding with significant cracking capacity expansion using ethane feedstock Ethane throughput1 Company Location (1,000 bbl/d) Status2 2013 2018 Existing, restarts, and capacity expansions…
U.S. petrochemical industry is also responding with significant propane dehydrogenation capacity build out Propane throughput1 Company Location (1000 b/d) Status2 2013 2018 C Existing Houston, TX 30 30 New Plants U Dow Chemical…
U.S. HGL export capacity is expanding rapidly Capacity Est. Cost2 Company Facility Type Product1 Location Completion Status3 (000 bbl/d) ( million) Enterprise Refrigerated C3+C4 135 Channelview, TX - Pre-2012 C Targa Resources…
Average heat content of gas delivered to U.S. consumers in March 2015 was 1,036 Btu/scf; hot gas is a potential source of more ethane for both domestic and export markets Source: EIA Benposium2015, Energy exports June 9, 2015 18
Non-HGL Petroleum Products and Crude Oil Benposium2015, Energy exports June 9, 2015 19
U.S. net imports of crude oil decreased roughly 2.2 million b/d from 2004 to 2015; crude exports have risen steadily since mid-2013 U.S. imports and exports of crude oil thousand barrels per day 12,000 10,000 imports 8,000 net…
Swing in U.S. petroleum products trade from 2 million b/d net imports to 2 million b/d net exports over 2004-15 period U.S. imports and exports of petroleum products thousand barrels per day 6,000 5,000 exports 4,000 3,000 2,000…
U.S. net imports of gasoline decreased by roughly 900 kb/d over the 2004-15 period; the United States is now a net gasoline exporter in winter months U.S. imports and exports of gasoline* thousand barrels per day 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000…
U.S. distillate exports grew steadily since 2004, with monthly exports in the range of 900 kb/d to 1,400 kb/d since early 2012 U.S. imports and exports of distillate thousand barrels per day 1,500 exports 1,000 500 imports 0…
In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines are driven by fuel economy policies; diesel and jet fuel use grows, but future policies could lower their use transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History…
U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2013 2013 2013 20 High Oil and Gas Low…
U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas History Reference…
Further thoughts on crude oil and petroleum product exports Future exports of crude oil and petroleum products taken together tend to rise with higher domestic production and decline with higher domestic consumption In high production…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
Propane and ethane production growth has driven the steady increase in U.S. HGL production Propane remains the largest-volume and highest-revenue HGL purity product Ethane production levels are increasing because of continuing…
Level of net natural gas trade, including LNG exports, depends largely on resource levels and world energy prices U.S. total net natural gas imports trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 5 10 0 0…
Industrial energy use rises with growth of shale gas supply industrial sector total delivered energy consumption quadrillion Btu 2013 Projections 35 High Economic Growth 30 Reference Low Economic Growth 25 20 2010 2015…
Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 12 High Oil Price 9…
Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips consumption leading to a balance in United States energy imports and exports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2020 2040 110 -1% Consumption…
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