Biomass in the United States Energy Economy International Biomass Conference and Expo Dr. Richard Newell, Administrator May 03, 2011 St. Louis, Missouri U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis…
Overview The potential for biomass and biofuels Potential biomass supply chain Biofuel corporate landscape US biomass consumption by sector and type Electricity sector Reference case power generation projections Alternative cases…
There are many sources and many uses for biomass Raw inputs Feedstocks Energy products Corn Virgin oils FAME biodiesel Soy Starch Renewable diesel Other seed crops Fiber Ethanol Livestock Fat & grease Butanol Forestry Lignocellulose…
Corporate landscape for 1st generation biofuels Alcohol production Diesel blendstocks Vertically integrated majors: Vertically integrated majors: Archer Daniels Midland Archer Daniels Midland Large refiners: Renewable Large refiners:…
Next generation biofuel companies are developing numerous strategic relationships Technology Company Partner Products and co-products Codexis Royal Dutch Shell Iogen Virent BP Technology Legend Vercipia Gasoline 2nd generation…
EIA projects that consumption of biomass for liquid fuels and power will increase significantly, driven primarily by cellulosic biofuels US biomass supply quadrillion Btu per year 10 8 Cellulosic biofuels + electric power 6…
Despite this rapid growth, under current policies, fossil fuels still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu per year Shares of total U.S. energy History 2009 Projections 120 Renewables…
Policy and crude oil prices have worked in favor of biofuels US biofuels consumption million barrels per day 3.0 2.5 AEO2011 AEO2007 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2007…
The future market for biofuels depends on the world oil price path, which is highly uncertain annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections 225 High Oil Price 200 175 150 125…
In EIA projections, cellulosic biomass of three different types is consumed in liquid fuels and for power production cellulosic biomass consumption quadrillion Btu per year 2.5 Energy crops/ag residues 2.0 Forestry residues Urban…
Liquid fuels markets and electric power compete for the same biomass supply in EIA projections 2008 per dry ton Behind the projection, EIA has 100 a large biomass potential supply over a range of prices 80 As crop yields and other…
Electricity Richard Newell, Biomass Conference St. Louis, MO May 3, 2011 12
Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035 2009 capacity Capacity additions 2009 to 2035 Nuclear 101 (10%) Coal 313 (30%) Hydropower* Nuclear Hydropower* 3 (1%) 6…
Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting 22% of projected electricity generation growth non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year 450 History 2009 Projections 400 Advanced biofuels 350…
In the Reference Case, power generation from biomass sources is limited in the electricity sector; main growth in co-generation biomass power generation billion kilowatt hours per year 175 150 125 100 End Use cogeneration 75 50…
When renewable tax credits are extended indefinitely, wind and solar capture market share at the expense of biomass and geothermal total electricity generation billion kilowatt hours per year 900 Hydro & other 800 Wind 700 Solar…
Liquid fuels Richard Newell, Biomass Conference St. Louis, MO May 3, 2011 17
The liquid fuels industry landscape has changed rapidly in recent history due to the economy, biofuels, fuel economy, and oil prices U.S. motor gasoline consumption million barrels per day Liquid biofuels provide 8.8 Ethanol Petroleum…
The import share of liquids consumption drops over the projection due in part to increased fuel efficiency and biofuel production U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 25 4% Biofuels…
Domestic biofuels production grows rapidly, displacing 1.25 million barrels per day of gasoline and 360,000 barrels per day of diesel by 2035 U.S. biofuels production million barrels per day 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Starch ethanol…
New light duty vehicle fuel economy achieves almost 38 mpg by 2035 in the Reference case, slowing the growth of fuel demand miles per gallon History 2009 Projections 45 40 35 30 25 Summary of standards 20 2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE…
FFVs make up the largest share of unconventional vehicles, which account for 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck sales millions 20 15 Conventional gasoline Diesel 10 Gaseous and fuel cell…
E85 infrastructure needs for meeting the RFS depend on the penetration of E15 into the marketplace Ethanol blending into E85 1000s of stations 45 Slow E15 Penetration Reference Case Fast E15 Penetration 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5…
Summary and view to the future Policy changes and higher oil prices are moving the United States to more use of biofuels Uncertainties still lie ahead Land use Infrastructure changes Technology development Political and market…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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