EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook for Winter Fuels Outlook Conference National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) October 12, 2011 Washington, DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator U.S. Energy…
Overview EIA expects higher average fuel bills this winter heating season for heating oil, propane, and natural gas, but little change in electricity bills. Higher fuel prices are the main driver 10% higher heating oil prices (than…
Overview Bill increases are moderated by a slightly warmer winter weather forecast for the Northeast, South, and Midwest. The West is forecast to be slightly colder than it was last year. Inventories of distillate fuel oil and…
Balance of heating fuels varies regionally Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other DC South U.S. total 110…
Expenditures expected to increase this winter (October 1 March 31) for fossil fuels but not electricity Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel forecast than forecast than…
Fuel prices increase this winter; natural gas remains lower than 2005-2010 average % change in fuel price 40% 30% compared with last winter compared with 5-year average 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% natural gas electricity…
Winter 2011-12 heating season forecast is 2% warmer than last winter, close to the 30-year average U.S. population-weighted heating degree-days NOAA winter (December February) 5 percent warmer than last year 1,200 1,000 800…
Natural Gas Howard Gruenspecht, Winter Fuels Outlook 8 Washington, DC, October 12, 2011
Higher natural gas prices contribute to increase in average fuel bills in the South and Northeast this winter Share of all U.S. Percent change from last winter (forecast) households that use natural gas as primary space Average…
EIA expects residential natural gas prices to average about 4% higher this winter than last Dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) History Forecast 25 Winter Residential price 20 15 10 5 Henry Hub spot price 0 Jan 2007…
Future natural gas prices remain highly uncertain Dollars per million Btu History Forecast 10 Henry Hub spot price 9 STEO Henry Hub price forecast 8 NYMEX Henry Hub futures prices 7 68% NYMEX confidence interval 6 95% NYMEX…
The probability of the January 2012 contract month wholesale natural gas price being higher than 5.50 per MMBtu is less than 2% probability of exceedance 40% 23% 30% 20% 7% 10% 2% 0% 4.50 / MMBtu 5.00 / MMBtu 5.50 / MMBtu…
EIA expects natural gas inventories to remain at high levels billion cubic feet History Forecast 4,500 10% warmer 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Normal 2,000 range 1,500 10% colder 1,000 500 Base case 0 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan…
Heating Oil Howard Gruenspecht, Winter Fuels Outlook 14 Washington, DC, October 12, 2011
EIA expects residential heating oil prices to average 10% higher this winter than last dollars per gallon 5 Forecast Winter Home heating 4 oil price 3 2 Crude oil price 1 0 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011…
Heating oil prices remain uncertain due to their dependence on crude oil prices dollars per gallon 5 History Forecast 4 3 2 1 0 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Heating oil U.S. average wholesale price STEO heating oil wholesale…
The probability of January 2012 contract month wholesale heating oil price being higher than 3.50 per gallon is less than 10% probability of exceedance 40% 34% 30% 20% 10% 10% 2% 0% 3.00 / gallon 3.50 / gallon 4.00 / gallon…
Winter heating fuel prices diverge in the Northeast; heating oil price up 10% over last winter residential winter heating fuel prices, Northeast Census Region dollars per million Btu 30 history forecast natural gas heating oil 25…
Going into winter, distillate inventories remain towards the upper end of their recent historical range million barrels History Forecast 200 10% warmer Base case 180 160 Normal 140 range 120 100 80 10% colder 60 40 20 0 Jan 2009…
EIA expects gasoline prices will track the cost of crude oil, with regular gasoline prices this winter averaging about 34 cents per gallon higher than last winter Dollars per gallon 5 History Winter Forecast 4 Regular gasoline…
Propane Howard Gruenspecht, Winter Fuels Outlook 21 Washington, DC, October 12, 2011
EIA forecasts higher residential propane prices in the Northeast and Midwest this winter Share of all U.S. Percent change from last winter (forecast) households that use propane as primary space Average Total heating fuel…
Propane inventories remain at the low end of their recent historical range million barrels History Forecast 80 10% warmer 70 60 Normal range 50 40 History 30 10% colder 20 10 Base case 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Note: Normal range…
Electricity Howard Gruenspecht, Winter Fuels Outlook 24 Washington, DC, October 12, 2011
Winter electricity bill forecast shows little change from last winter Percent change from last winter (forecast) Share of all U.S. households that use electricity as primary space Average Total heating fuel Consumption price…
2009 RECS: Better State coverage, more information Each Census Region and Division contains at least one State with detailed usage statistics Compares energy statistics across States and groups of States within a region newly…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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