Annual Energy Outlook 2015 For Columbia University May 2015 New York, NY By Adam Sieminski U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Key results from Annual Energy Outlook 2015 (AEO2015) In most AEO2015 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 2030 for the first time since the 1950s Strong growth in domestic production of…
Overview of AEO2015 Annual Energy Outlook 2015 May 2015 3
Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO2015 Reference case than in AEO2014, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 160 AEO2014 120 AEO2015 80 40…
Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding liquid…
U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 40 30 20 10 Low Oil…
CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons History 2013 Projections 6,250 6,000 High Economic…
Short-term and long-term outlook: Petroleum Annual Energy Outlook 2015 May 2015 8
Brent crude oil prices were relatively stable through the first half of 2014; increased oil supply and lower global economic growth expectations lowered prices from July 2014 to January 2015 dollars per barrel Source: EIA,…
Average household energy expenditures fall by 16% in 2015, then increase somewhat in 2016 (based on EIA price forecast) household energy expenditures dollars 5,000 4,568 4,534 3,805 4,090 393 417 4,000 404 394 1,422 1,464 Natural…
Oil prices rise from mid-2015 through mid-2016 in EIAs forecast however, the market-implied confidence band is very wide WTI price dollars per barrel 150 125 100 75 Historical Spot Price 50 STEO Forecast NYMEX Futures Price…
Various events could lead to changes in global supply or demand that could push future crude oil prices higher or lower than the forecast Event Oil demand growth surprises to the upside (economy- or price-driven) Key OPEC producers…
AEO2015 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of future crude oil price paths Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 250 High Oil Price 200 150 Reference 100 Low Oil Price 50 High…
U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2013 2013 2013 20 High Oil and Gas Low…
U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas History Reference…
Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2013 Projections 25 2020 2040 20 14% 17% 33% Natural…
Net liquid imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply in most AEO2015 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent…
In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 30 2030 2040 25 24% Diesel 31% 31%…
Most significant contributors to non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production: Canada, Brazil, U.S., Kazakhstan, Russia non-OPEC crude and lease condensate production, Reference case million barrels per day 24 2010 2025 2040…
All of the growth in liquid fuels consumption occurs in the emerging non-OECD (million barrels per day) petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, 1990-2040 million barrels per day history 2010 projections 90 Non-OECD 60…
Non-OECD Asia and the Middle East account for 85% of the worlds growth in liquids consumption over the projection non-OECD petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption, Reference case, 1990-2040 million barrels per day history…
Short-term and long-term outlook: Natural gas Annual Energy Outlook 2015 May 2015 22
Henry Hub spot prices are expected to average 3.07/million Btu in 2015 and 3.45/million Btu in 2016 Henry Hub spot price dollars per million Btu 7 6 5 4 3 Historical Spot Price 2 STEO Forecast 1 NYMEX Futures Price 95% NYMEX…
After cold weather caused large natural gas storage withdrawals in 2014, inventories are expected to remain within historical average levels in 2015 and 2016 U.S. working natural gas in storage billion cubic feet per day deviation from…
Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 12 High Oil Price 9…
Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale gas and tight…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History Projections 35 Residential Commercial Transportation** Electric…
Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 2013 Projections 2013 16…
Short-term and long-term outlook: Electricity Annual Energy Outlook 2015 May 2015 29
Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 2013 to 2040 Period Average Growth__ U.S. electricity use and GDP Electricity use GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s…
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% History 2013 Projections 6 1993 2025 2040 5 31% 4…
Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 750 600 450 Conventional Wind Hydroelectric Power 300…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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