International Energy Outlook 2011 Center for Strategic and International Studies Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator September 19, 2011 Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics &…
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case World energy consumption increases by 53% between 2008 and 2035 with half of the increase attributed to China and India Renewables are the worlds fastest-growing energy source, at 2.8% per…
Key findings in the IEO2011 Reference case (continued) Increasing supplies of unconventional natural gas support growth in projected worldwide gas use. Global natural gas consumption grows by 1.6% per year, and projected natural gas…
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2008 Projections 500 482 400 Non-OECD 300 260 288 OECD 244 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
China and India account for about half of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections 400 Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD 300 200 100 0 1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035…
Growth in income and population drive rising energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate increases in energy demand average annual change (2008-2035) percent per year 7 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 6 5 4 3 2…
Renewables are the fastest growing source of energy consumption world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2008 Projections 250 Liquids 29% (including biofuels) 27% 200 34% Coal 23% 150 28% Share of Natural gas…
Liquid fuels markets Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011 8
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the other cases represent a wide range of prices world oil price paths real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections 225 High Oil Price case 200 175 150 125 Reference case…
Unconventional liquids become increasingly important in the total supply of liquid fuels world liquids production million barrels per day History 2008 Projections 120 100 Unconventional 12% 5% 80 40% OPEC conventional 60 41%…
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 18 2008 2035 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia Iraq Iran Other Middle Africa South America East…
Non-OPEC conventional supply growth comes mainly from Russia, United States, Brazil, and Kazakhstan Non-OPEC conventional production million barrels per day 14 2008 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia United States Brazil…
Oil sands/bitumen and biofuels account for 70 percent of the increase in unconventional liquid fuels Unconventional production million barrels per day 6 2008 2035 5 4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/bitumen Biofuels Extra-heavy oil…
High and Low Oil Price cases reflect shifts in both demand and supply schedules relative to the Reference case worldwide liquids consumption and production in 2035 million barrels per day 80 Reference case High Price case Low Price…
Natural gas markets Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011 15
Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 120 OECD Non-OECD 100 100 83 80 66 68 62 57 60 55 56…
The Middle East and non-OECD Asia account for the largest increases in natural gas production world natural gas production increment, 2008-2035 trillion cubic feet Middle East 15 Non-OECD Asia 12 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 10 Africa 7…
Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Howard Gruenspecht 18 CSIS, September 19, 2011
Estimates of technically recoverable shale gas resources in the 48 shale gas basins that were recently assessed Technically Continent Recoverable (trillion cubic feet) North America Canada, Mexico 1,069 Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,…
Unconventional gas is an increasingly important component of supply, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada natural gas production trillion cubic feet 30 20 Unconventional (tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane)…
Electricity markets Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011 21
Renewables and natural gas are fastest growing, but coal still fuels the largest share of the worlds electricity in 2035 world electricity generation by fuel trillion kilowatthours History Projections 40 30 Coal 20 Natural…
China accounts for nearly three-quarters of the world increase in coal-fired generation coal-fired generation trillion kilowatthours History Projections 8 United States China Non-OECD Asia (excluding China) Rest of world 6 4…
Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions Howard Gruenspecht CSIS, September 19, 2011 24
Non-OECD Asia accounts for almost 75% of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History Projections 25 OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia 20…
Coal continues to account for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2008 Projections 50 40 30 Coal 20 Liquids…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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