Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release Reference Case AEO2012 Early Release Rollout Presentation Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies John Hopkins University January 23, 2012 Washington, DC Howard…
Key results from the AEO2012 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged Projected growth of energy use slows over the projection period reflecting an extended economic recovery and increasing energy efficiency in…
What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel…
Overview of U.S. energy supply and demand Howard Gruenspecht AEO2012, January 23, 2012 4
Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels; demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors 2010 total U.S. energy use = 98.0 quadrillion Btu Primary energy demand by fuel Primary energy demand by sector Nuclear 8.6%…
Energy use grows slowly over the projection in response to a slow and extended economic recovery and improving energy efficiency U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu per year Shares of total U.S. energy History 2010…
Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History 2010 Projections 1.75 1.50 Per dollar 1.25 Per capita CO2 per GDP 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 1980 1985 1990 1995…
In the AEO2012 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels by 2035 billion metric tons carbon dioxide History 2005 2010 Projections 7 6 5 Energy-related CO2 emissions 4 2005 2020 2035 3…
Natural Gas Howard Gruenspecht AEO2012, January 23, 2012 9
Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect updated assessments U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 3000 Unproved shale gas 2500 Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) 2,214 Proved reserves (all types and…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10 5 Net imports 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 49% 20 Shale gas 23% 15 26% Tight gas 21% 10 9% Non-associated…
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; electric power and industrial use drives much of the future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year History Projections 30 25 Electric 34% power 31% 20 15…
Natural gas price projections are lower than in AEO2011, consistent with recent market developments natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2010 dollars per million Btu History 2010 Projections 10 9 8 7 6 AEO2011 5 AEO2012 4 3…
Petroleum and other liquid supply Howard Gruenspecht AEO2012, January 23, 2012 15
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2012 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of light low sulfur (LLS) crude oil real 2010 dollars per barrel History 2010 Projections 225 High Oil Price…
Global liquids supply increases 25% while market shares hold relatively stable liquids supply million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 120 100 42% 80 OPEC 40% 60 35% 40 Other non-OECD 35% 20 19% OECD Americas 19% 0…
U.S. imports of liquid fuels continue to decline due to increased production of gas liquids and biofuels and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 25 5% Biofuels including…
U.S. dependence on imported petroleum continues to decline U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2005 2010 Projections 25 20 Consumption 36% 15 60% 49% Net petroleum imports 10 Domestic supply 5 0 1970…
Biofuels fall short of the RFS target in 2022, but exceed 36 billion gallons by the early 2030s billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 45 40 Legislated RFS in 2022 Biodiesel 35 Net imports RFS with adjustments under Other…
New light duty vehicle fuel economy reaches almost 38 mpg by 2035 in the Reference case, which does not include proposed standards for MY2017 to MY2025 vehicles miles per gallon History 2010 Projections 45 40 35 30 25 Summary of…
Most transport fuel consumption is in light and heavy duty vehicles U.S. transportation energy consumption million barrels per day oil equivalent History 2010 Projections 16 20% 12 18% Heavy-duty vehicles 8 Light-duty vehicles…
Efficiency improvements mostly offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services Growth 2010 2035 (2010-2035) Light duty vehicles Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 8.6 8.8 2% Number of licensed…
Electricity Howard Gruenspecht AEO2012, January 23, 2012 24
While electricity consumption grows by 23% over the projection, the annual rate of growth slows percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 2010 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10…
In 2010, U.S. electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable 2010 Total net generation: 2010 Non-hydro renewable 4,120 billion kWh net generation: Other gases 168 billion kWh 0.3% Conventional Nuclear…
Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2010 Projections 6 5 27% 4 Natural gas 24% Renewables 16% 3…
Non-hydro renewable sources more than double between 2010 and 2035 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2010 Projections 500 400 Advanced biofuels cogeneration Biomass 300 Power sector…
Expected changes in the AEO2012 Reference case for the complete release Incorporation of Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) issued by EPA in December, 2011 Updated historical data and equations in the transportation sector,…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
Loading...
