Skip to main content The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA Investor Presentation | Shale Experts
Loading...
Pm

The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA

EIA · Jul 1, 2006 · 36 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 1
    The Energy Outlook: Drivers, Projections, and Implications for Energy: The New Normal Aspen Institute, Aspen, CO by Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration (howard.gruenspechteia.doe.gov)…
  2. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 2
    Outline Global Energy Outlook and underlying drivers U.S. Energy Outlook under current policies Synergies and Conflicts among Policy Objectives Potential impacts of a cap-and-trade program for U.S. GHG emissions constraints on the…
  3. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 3
    National/Regional and Global Influences Vary by Fuel Global NAT GAS POLICY OIL RENEWABLES COAL NUCLEAR National/Regional MARKET Global Oil and nuclear are the most global fuels from a market perspective 2
  4. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 4
    The Global Energy Outlook and Its Key Drivers 3
  5. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 5
    World Oil Prices in Three Cases, 1980-2030 100 (2004 dollars per barrel) High Price 80 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 History Projections 0 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 The future path of oil prices is highly…
  6. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 6
    World Marketed Energy Use by Region, 450 2003-2030 400 350 OECD Quadrillion Btu 300 Non-OECD 250 200 150 100 50 0 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Most projected growth in energy use is outside of mature market…
  7. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 7
    World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, 1980-2030 300 History Projections 33% 250 Oil 27% Quadrillion Btu 200 26% 38% Coal 150 Share of World 24% Natural Gas Total 100 24% Renewables 50 8% 8% Nuclear 5% 6% 0 1980…
  8. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 8
    World Marketed Energy Consumption in Three Economic Growth Cases, 1980-2030 900 History Projections 800 High Economic Growth Case 700 Q u ad rillio n B tu 600 500 Reference Case 400 Low Economic Growth Case 300 200…
  9. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 9
    Vehicle Ownership, 2003 900 800 USA vehicles per 1,000 people 700 600 Italy Germany France Canada Japan 500 UK 400 Poland 300 Israel Malaysia Korea Russia 200 Mexico Brazil 100 Thailand Indonesia 0 China India 0…
  10. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 10
    Comparison of 2025 Projections: IEO2006 vs. IEO2005 162 Oil 224 2003 243 IEO2006 99 Natural Gas 173 IEO2005 162 100 Coal 177 156 27 Nuclear 34 34 33 Renewables 58 49 421 Total 665 645 0 100 200 300 400 500 600…
  11. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 11
    World Petroleum Consumption, 2004 and 2030 (million barrels per day) 2004 2030 Other OECD Other U.S. OECD U.S. Transitional Including Including Economies 17.3% Territories Territories 24.5% 5.3% 19.8% 21.5% Emerging…
  12. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 12
    World Petroleum Production, 2004 and 2030 (million barrels per day) 2004 2030 OPEC OPEC United States 36.4% United States 36.9% 7.6% 10.2% Other Mature 9.9% Economies 17.2% Other Mature 19.0% 20.1% Economies 14.4% 16.3%…
  13. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 13
    World Natural Gas Consumption, 1980-2030 120 History Projections 100 Non-OECD Trillion Cubic Feet 80 60 OECD 40 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Higher oil prices lead to faster growth in…
  14. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 14
    World Coal Consumption, 1980-2030 8 History Projections 7 6 Non-OECD Billion Short Tons 5 4 OECD 3 2 1 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 China and India dominate projected growth in coal…
  15. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 15
    Net Electricity Consumption, 1980-2030 18,000 History Projections 16,000 14,000 Non-OECD Billion Kilowatthours 12,000 10,000 OECD 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
  16. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 16
    World Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions 1980-2030 30 History Projections 25 Non-OECD Billion Metric Tons 20 15 OECD 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Projected CO2 emissions trends…
  17. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 17
    The U.S. Outlook 16
  18. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 18
    U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 30 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) History Projections 25 20 Consumption 62% Net Imports 15 58% 10 Domestic supply 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030…
  19. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 19
    U.S. Gross Petroleum Imports by Source, 2004-2030 20 (million barrels per day) Other Far East 15 Caribbean Europe 10 North America 5 Other OPEC OPEC Persian Gulf 0 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Projected U.S.…
  20. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 20
    Oil and U.S. Natural Gas Prices Oil prices are projected to remain higher than natural gas prices on an energy content basis through 2030. Although there are significant flows of LNG, U.S. natural gas prices are determined in the…
  21. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 21
    Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Imports, 1980-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net imports 21% 20 15% Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2004 and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 5 4.4 10…
  22. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 22
    U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 10 History Projections Industrial 8 Electric Power 6 Residential 4 Commercial 2 Transportation 0 1990 1995 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
  23. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 23
    Electricity Generating Capacity including Combined Heat 1400 and Power, 2004-2030 (gigawatts) New nuclear 1200 New renewable New coal Needed capacity 1000 New natural gas Existing other fossil steam 800 Existing combustion…
  24. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 24
    Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2004, 2025, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 4000 57 2004 History - percent of total AEO2006 - 2025 3000 53 AEO2006 - 2030 50 2000 20 17 1000 16 15 20 18 10 9 9 3 2 2 0 Coal Nuclear…
  25. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 25
    Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Sector and Fuel, 2004 and 2030 (million metric tons) 3,500 3,000 8,114 5,900 2,500 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2,000 2004 2030 Petroleum 1,500 Natural Gas 1,000 Coal 500 Electricity 0…
  26. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 26
    Synergies and Conflicts Among Policies and Impacts of Potential Policies to limit US GHG Emissions 25
  27. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 27
    Interrelationships Between Oil Demand, Energy Security and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Reduction Would U.S. energy security improve or worsen in a world where unstable exporters provided a larger share of a smaller world demand What is the…
  28. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 28
    Energy Security and GHG Emission Reduction: some synergies (S), some conflicts (C) (S) Improved vehicle efficiency: lowers GHG emissions and oil demand/imports (=more energy security) (S/C) Biomass: should it back out coal used in…
  29. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 29
    Policy Changes Could Significantly Affect the Outlook for Electricity Markets As previously noted, EIA Reference Case projections are generally based on existing laws and policies. In recent reports, EIA has examined the energy…
  30. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 30
    GHG Cap & Trade Analysis Cases GHG Intensity Safety Valve Price Reduction Goal (2004 dollars per metric ton Case Name (percent per year) CO2 equivalent) Other 2010-2019 2020-2030 2010 2030 Cap-Trade 1 2.4 2.8 6.16 9.86 Cap-Trade 2…
  31. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 31
    Targeted Reduction in GHG Emissions in 2025 (Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Cap-Trade1 AEO2005 Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 Cap-Trade 3 Cap-Trade 4 Higher projected…
  32. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 32
    Total GHG Emissions in Alternative Cases (million metric tons CO2 equivalent) 10,000 8,000 6,000 Reference Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 4,000 Cap-Trade 3 Cap-Trade 4 2004 Level 2,000 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012…
  33. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 33
    GHG Emissions Reduction in 2020 in Alternative Cases (million metric tons CO2 equivalent) 1,400 Energy Related CO2 Other Greenhouse Gases 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 Cap-Trade…
  34. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 34
    Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Reductions in 2020 (million metric tons CO2) 1,000 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Electric Power 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade…
  35. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 35
    Coal Generation in Alternative Cases (billion kilowatthours) 4,000 Reference Cap-Trade 1 Cap-Trade 2 Cap-Trade 3 Cap-Trade 4 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2004 2020 2030 As the emissions…
  36. The Energy Outlook: Drivers Projections and Implications for Energy: The New Normal – EIA – slide 36
    www.eia.doe.gov

From the store

Browse maps, data & reports in the Shale Experts store