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Energy: A View from EIA – EIA

EIA · Jan 29, 2008 · 41 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 1
    Energy: A View from EIA for National Academy of Sciences National Research Council Committee on Climate, Energy, and National Security Howard Gruenspecht Deputy Administrator, Energy Information Administration…
  2. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 2
    Key Topics Where we stand today U.S. energy projections under current laws and policies Insights from EIAs recent analyses of a cap & trade policy to limit greenhouse gas emissions: an example of using the NEMS. Global energy…
  3. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 3
    U.S Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2007 (quadrillion Btu) NAS/NRC Committee on Climate, Energy and National Security, H. Gruenspecht -- 1/29/09 3
  4. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 4
    U.S. Energy Projections Under Current Laws and Policies: Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Early Release Reference Case NAS/NRC Committee on Climate, Energy and National Security, H. Gruenspecht -- 1/29/09 4
  5. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 5
    The reference assumes rising oil prices; the full AEO includes price cases that span a wide range 2007 dollars per barrel 220 200 History Projections 180 High Price 160 140 Reference 120 100 80 60 Low Price 40 20 0…
  6. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 6
    Unconventional liquids become more important over time (Million barrels per day) Low Price Reference High Price Case (prelim) Case Case (prelim) 2007 2030 2030 2030 Conventional Crude* 71.0 93.6 77.3 57.7 Natural Gas Plant Liquids 8.0…
  7. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 7
    Non-fossil energy use grows rapidly, but fossil fuels still provide 79 percent of total energy use in 2030 quadrillion Btu 120 History Projections 100 Coal 80 Natural Gas 60 40 Liquid Fuels Liquid Biofuels 20 Renewables…
  8. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 8
    Energy use per dollar of GDP continues to decline; per capita energy use also declines index, 1990=1.0 1.2 History Projections 1.0 Per capita 0.8 0.6 Per dollar 0.4 0.2 0.0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 NAS/NRC…
  9. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 9
    Net dependence on imported liquids declines dramatically over the next 20 years million barrels per day 30 History Projections 25 20 Consumption 54% 41% 15 60% 58% Net Imports 10 Domestic supply AEO2009 reference case 5…
  10. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 10
    Petroleum-based liquids consumption is projected to be flat as biofuels use grows million barrels per day 25 History Projections 20 Biofuels 15 Transportation 10 5 Industrial Electric Power 0 Residential and…
  11. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 11
    Biofuels use falls short of the 36 billion gallon RFS target in 2022, but exceeds it by 2030 billion credits 50 Legislated RFS RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments 40 Renewable Diesel 30 Biomass to Liquids (BTL) Net Ethanol Imports…
  12. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 12
    The import share of natural gas supply declines sharply as domestic supply grows trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 Consumption 3% Net Imports 14% 16% 20 Domestic supply AEO2009 reference case 15 AEO2008…
  13. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 13
    Unconventional production meets most growth in natural gas demand and offsets the decline in conventional production and imports trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 20 Unconventional 15 Non-associated offshore…
  14. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 14
    Growth in electricity use continues to slow 3-year rolling average percent growth 14 History Projections Str uc tur Period Annual Growth 12 al Ch 1950s 9.0 an 1960s 7.3 ge in 10 E co 1970s 4.2 no 1980s 3.1 my 1990s 2.4 -…
  15. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 15
    Generation mix gradually shifts to lower carbon options billion kilowatthours 6,000 History Projections Oil & Other 5,000 Renewable 4,000 Nuclear 3,000 Natural Gas 2,000 Coal 1,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030…
  16. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 16
    Nonhydropower renewable sources meet 33% of total generation growth between 2007 and 2030 billion kilowatthours 500 History Projections 450 400 Solar 350 Geothermal 300 Waste 250 Wind 200 150 100 Biomass 50 0 1990 2000…
  17. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 17
    Electricity generation is the dominant source of CO2 emissions growth million metric tons 3,500 Purchased Electricity Coal 3,000 Natural Gas AEO2008 Petroleum 2,500 2030 AEO2009 2,000 2007 2030 1,500 1,000 500 0…
  18. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 18
    Key results from AEO2009 reference case World oil prices rise to higher levels due to growth in world demand and more limited access to resources U.S. oil use remains near its present level through 2030 as modest growth in overall…
  19. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 19
    Insights from Recent EIA Analyses of A Cap & Trade Policy for U.S.GHGs NAS/NRC Committee on Climate, Energy and National Security, H. Gruenspecht -- 1/29/09 19
  20. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 20
    Placing a value on carbon dioxide raises the delivered price of coal relative to other fossil and non-fossil fuels Impact of 10 per ton Impact of 50 per ton Delivered Price CO2 content CO2 value CO2 value (2007 dollars, all Fuel…
  21. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 21
    The electricity sector dominates emissions reductions in EIAs analysis of the Lieberman-Warner (L-W) cap & trade proposal million metric tons 10,000 Electric Power T ransportation Industrial Buildings 9,000 History Projections…
  22. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 22
    Regardless of technology assumptions, emissions cuts increase the total requirement for siting NEW capacity Coal no CCS Coal with CCS Nuclear 700 Renewables Natural Gas/Oil 600 Gigawatts added, 2007-2030 500 196 134 400 300…
  23. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 23
    Economic Impacts of GHG Limitation: EIA strives to present its estimates in a neutral manner, letting others do the framing. Cumulative Change in Real GDP 2009-2030 (billion 2000 ) Undiscounted Discounted Real GDP (billion 2000 ) 0…
  24. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 24
    Structural and policy differences both matter to outcomes Kwh /year Electricity Use Per Capita, US and California Californias per capita electricity use is well below the U.S. average. the gap Recent analysis from Stanford…
  25. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 25
    EIAs International Energy Outlook 2008 NAS/NRC Committee on Climate, Energy and National Security, H. Gruenspecht -- 1/29/09 25
  26. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 26
    International Energy Outlook 2008 The Big Picture Worldwide marketed energy consumption is projected to grow by 50 percent between 2005 and 2030. The demand in developing non- OECD countries grows by 85 percent. Renewables are the…
  27. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 27
    Marketed energy use in the non-OECD nations surpasses that of the OECD nations quadrillion Btu 450 History Projections 409 400 350 Non-OECD 286 300 241 250 OECD 200 150 221 100 50 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015…
  28. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 28
    Fossil fuels continue to dominate marketed energy consumption quadrillion Btu 250 History Projections 33% Liquids 29% 200 37% Natural Gas Coal 24% 150 26% Share of World 100 Total 23% Renewables 8% (8.5%) 50 8% (7.6%)…
  29. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 29
    Countries with rapid economic growth drive energy demand average growth, percent per year 7.5 GDP 6.5 Population 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 0.5 es pe -0.5 a st a na ca re n a l Ea zi…
  30. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 30
    Projected consumption of liquids in 2030 varies across the price scenarios million barrels oil equivalent per day 150 Projections 122 120 113 99 86 90 60 30 0 2006 Low Price Reference High Price Case Case Case…
  31. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 31
    With higher prices, unconventional liquids become a more significant source of supply million barrels oil equivalent per day 150 Projections 120 Unconventional 5.0 9.7 90 Non-OPEC 58.4 19.0 3.3 Conventional 55.1 60 48.1…
  32. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 32
    World electric power generation nearly doubles in the reference case from 2005 to 2030 trillion kilowatthours 25 History Projections 19.7 20 Non-OECD 15 13.5 9.9 OECD 10 5 7.5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010…
  33. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 33
    Coal and natural gas account for most of the increase in electricity generation trillion kilowatthours 35 Coal Natural Gas 30 Renewables Nuclear 25 Liquids 20 15 10 5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 International Energy…
  34. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 34
    Fossil fuel prices, environmental concerns, and government policies also encourage growth in renewable energy quadrillion Btu 35 OECD 30 30 Non-OECD 29 28 27 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 20 18 17 15 10 5 0 2005 2010 2015 2020…
  35. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 35
    World carbon dioxide emissions grow by about 50 percent by 2030 billion metric tons 30 OECD 27 Non-OECD 25 25 22 20 20 17 15 16 14 14 15 15 13 14 14 14 10 5 0 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 International Energy…
  36. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 36
    U.S. Natural Gas Proved Reserves and Technically Recoverable Resources NAS/NRC Committee on Climate, Energy and National Security, H. Gruenspecht -- 1/29/09 36
  37. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 37
    U.S. natural gas production has increased dramatically since the start of 2007 60 U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008…
  38. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 38
    Unconventional resources were the largest component of the natural gas resource base for AEO2009 Proved 211 (note: 238 at year-end 2007) Inferred nonassociated 171 49 220 Offshore Onshore Undiscovered nonassociated 114 238 352…
  39. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 39
    Proved natural gas reserves increased at a record rate in 2007 despite growing production 2007 30-Year High, 238 Tcf Largest 1-Year Increase 250 More than 45% 200 growth Trillion Cubic Feet From 1993 Low 150 100 50…
  40. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 40
    Extensions and net revisions together accounted for over 90 percent of total reserve additions in 2007 270 - Proved Reserves 2007 Total Discoveries 29.1 Tcf (19.5) 260 Tcf 2007 Dry Gas - New Reservoirs in Old Fields 0.4…
  41. Energy: A View from EIA – EIA – slide 41
    Examples of EIA Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2009, December 2008/ February 2009 International Energy Outlook 2008, August 2008…

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