International Energy Outlook For Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014 Houston, TX By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing sources of energy consumption; oil still dominates world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200 Liquids 34% Coal (including…
World energy consumption growth is concentrated in non- OECD countries world energy consumption, 1990-2040 quadrillion Btu History Projections 1,000 800 600 Non-OECD 400 200 OECD 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040…
Results from the IEO2014 Reference case World petroleum and other liquid fuels use increases by 38% between 2010 and 2040, all in the non-OECD Developing Asia (including China and India) and the Middle East account for 85% of the…
These seven regions accounted for 95% of U.S. oil production growth and all U.S. natural gas production growth from 2011-2013 Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014 5
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day Eagle…
Resource and technology assumptions have major implications for projected U.S. crude oil production beyond the next few years Reference case High Oil and Gas Resource case million barrels per day million barrels per day 2012 14 2012…
EIA Reference scenario shows world tight oil production increasing to almost 8 million b/d in 2025 tight oil production million barrels per day history 2012 projections 10 World (IEO2014 Reference case) 8 6 U.S. (AEO2014 &…
Tight oil production will spread to nations outside of the United States and Canada over the projection tight oil production, Reference case million barrels per day 8 AEO2014 High Resource case 7 2010 2025 2040 6 5 5.0 MMbbl/d…
U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent 60.0 30 United States…
U.S. oil production growth helping to offset unplanned outages estimated unplanned crude oil production outages million barrels per day 4.0 U.S. Production growth* 3.5 Other Non-OPEC 3.0 Non- Syria OPEC 2.5 Sudan / S. Sudan 2.0…
Effect of low oil prices on U.S. shale oil production US+CA, oil+NGLs from tight plays (kbbld) Brent-indexed breakeven prices: Source: Rystad Energy North America Quarterly Shale Report Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference…
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day 2012 40 history projections 100…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet 35.0 history projections 30.0 25.0 11.0 electric power 20.0 8.5 15.0 industrial*…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day history 2012 projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference case High Oil and Gas Resource case billion cubic trillion cubic feet per year trillion cubic feet per year feet per…
Most of the growth in production between 2011 and 2015 consists of sweet grades with API gravity of 40 or above U.S. crude oil production by type million barrels of oil per day history forecast 10 9 8 7 6 API 50+ 5 API 40-50…
Crude oil and associated liquids contain a wide variety of hydrocarbons Source: EIA via Harvey Crude Assay Management System Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014 18
EIA projects declines in carbon dioxide emissions for all sectors except industrial relative to 2005 Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Deloitte Oil and Gas Conference November 18, 2014 19
Coal continues to account for the largest share of global energy- related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2010 Projections 50.0…
Areas of uncertainty in the outlook Oil prices Chinas energy demand growth; particularly in transportation Increasing global trade of natural gas and hydrocarbon gas liquids in addition to oil Global development of tight oil and…
EIA natural gas production forecasts were revised up significantly between 2013 and 2014 forecasted dry natural gas production billion cubic feet per day 120 100 AEO 2014 80 AEO 2013 60 AEO 2004 actual production history 40…
EIA crude oil production forecasts were also revised up substantially between 2013 and 2014 forecasted crude oil production million barrels per day 12 10 AEO 2014 8 AEO 2013 6 AEO 2004 actual production history 4 2 0 2000…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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