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US Energy Information Administration – EIA

EIA · Apr 27, 2011 · 38 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 1
    Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Case U.S. Energy Information Administration Spring, 2011 Washington, DC U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
  2. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 2
    Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increased U.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas Industrial…
  3. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 3
    What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel…
  4. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 4
    Key updates included in the AEO2011 Reference case Natural gas and oil supply more than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources updated offshore data and…
  5. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 5
    Global energy consumption AEO2011, April 2011 5
  6. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 6
    Non-OECD countries account for vast majority of the nearly 50% projected increase in global energy use by 2035 energy consumption quadrillion Btu 800 739 687 700 639 591 600 544 495 500 62% 400 Non- OECD 50% 300 200 OECD 50%…
  7. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 7
    Overview of U.S. energy supply and demand AEO2011, April 2011 7
  8. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 8
    Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels; demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors 2009 total U.S. energy use = 94.6 quadrillion Btu Energy supply Energy demand Electricity - Nuclear Industrial 8.30% 9.45%…
  9. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 9
    Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu per year Shares of total U.S. energy History 2009 Projections 120 Renewables…
  10. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 10
    Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 13% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger quadrillion Btu 250 Constant Intensity 200 Constant Efficiency Reference Case Structural Consumption -33% change 150…
  11. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 11
    Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History 2009 Projections 1.75 1.50 Per dollar 1.25 Per capita CO2 per GDP 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000…
  12. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 12
    In the AEO2011 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions grow 5% over 2005 levels by 2035 billion metric tons carbon dioxide History 2005 2009 Projections 7 6 5 Energy-related CO2 emissions 4 3 2005 2020 2035 Energy-related CO2…
  13. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 13
    Electricity AEO2011, April 2011 13
  14. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 14
    In 2009, U.S. electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable 2009 Total net generation: 2009 Non-hydro renewable 3,953 billion kWh net generation: Other gases 141 billion kWh 0.3% Conventional Nuclear…
  15. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 15
    While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate of growth has slowed percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 2009 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 12 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 10 1990s 2.4 2000-2009 0.5 8…
  16. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 16
    The Reference case electricity mix in AEO2011 gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, with generation from natural gas rising 40% and renewables rising 75% electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2009…
  17. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 17
    Updated electric power plant capital costs show increases for nuclear, coal, and wind, while solar costs decline overnight capital cost 2009 dollars per kilowatt 7000 - 25% AEO 2010 AEO 2011 6000 + 39% + 37% - 10% 5000 - 2% 4000 +…
  18. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 18
    Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting 22% of projected electricity generation growth non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year 450 History 2009 Projections 400 Advanced biofuels 350…
  19. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 19
    Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035 2009 capacity Capacity additions 2009 to 2035 Nuclear 101 (10%) Coal 313 (30%) Hydropower* Nuclear Hydropower* 3 (1%) 6…
  20. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 20
    Natural Gas AEO2011, April 2011 20
  21. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 21
    Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production has increased 14- fold and now comprises about 22 percent of total U.S. production annual shale gas production trillion cubic feet 6 Eagle Ford (TX) 5 Marcellus (PA and Other Eastern…
  22. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 22
    Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 3000 Unproved shale gas 2543 2500 Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and…
  23. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 23
    30% domestic gas production growth outpaces 16% consumption growth, leading to declining imports U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 1% 25 Consumption 6% Net imports 11% 20 Domestic supply 15…
  24. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 24
    Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 1% 25 Net imports 11% 20 46% 14% Shale gas 15 20%…
  25. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 25
    Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; industrial and electric power use drives future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 25 35% 20 32% Industrial* 15 30% 30%…
  26. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 26
    A number of key economic and market drivers underpin natural gas consumption growth Sector TCF Gas Growth Key Drivers Consumption (2009 2035) 2009 2035 Industrial, 7.4 9.3 25% +215% combined heat-and power including generation; +30%…
  27. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 27
    Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past years due to an expanded shale gas resource base natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2009 dollars per million Btu History 2009 Projections 10 9/MMBtu 9 Updated AEO2009 8…
  28. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 28
    Oil and other liquid supply AEO2011, April 2011 28
  29. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 29
    Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections 225 High Oil Price 200 175…
  30. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 30
    Unconventional sources more than triple globally, but conventional petroleum continues to comprise the vast majority of liquids supply global liquids production million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 120 100 40% 80 OPEC…
  31. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 31
    U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production including biofuels and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 25 4% Biofuels including imports 11%…
  32. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 32
    Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key sources of increased domestic liquids supply U.S. liquid fuels million barrels per day Total consumption Net crude oil imports Net product imports Crude oil…
  33. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 33
    Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion gallon RFS target by 2031 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 45 Legislated RFS in 2022 40 35 Biodiesel RFS with Net imports 30 adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7)…
  34. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 34
    New light duty vehicle fuel economy achieves almost 38 mpg by 2035 in the Reference case miles per gallon History 2009 Projections 45 40 35 30 25 Summary of standards 20 2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSA vehicle…
  35. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 35
    Most transport fuel growth is in light and heavy duty vehicles U.S. transportation energy consumption million barrels per day oil equivalent History 2009 Projections 16 12 64% Light-duty vehicles 67% 8 4 20% 16% Heavy-duty…
  36. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 36
    Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services Growth 2009 2035 (2009-2035) Light duty vehicles Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 8.9 10.2 14% Number of…
  37. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 37
    Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck sales millions 20 15 Conventional gasoline Diesel 10 Gaseous and fuel cell Mild hybrid electric Hybrid electric 5 Plug-in…
  38. US Energy Information Administration – EIA – slide 38
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…

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