Selected U.S. energy issues: a view from the Energy Information Administration for ICF Energy Breakfast National Press Club Washington DC by Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting both economic recovery and energy efficiency improvement U.S. primary energy consumption Shares of total U.S. energy quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014…
Key results from the 2014 Annual Energy Outlook Reference case (current laws and policies) Growing domestic production of natural gas and oil continues to reshape the U.S. energy economy, with crude oil approaching the 1970 all-time…
Why long-term projections might/could/will be wrong Different relative fuel prices Faster / slower economic and energy demand growth Changing policies and regulations Changing consumer preferences Faster / slower technology…
The electricity sector and greenhouse gas emissions Howard Gruenspecht ICF Energy Breakfast, May 15, 2014 5
Takeaways Greenhouse gases and electricity Coal is expected to lose generation share to natural gas and renewables, but the speed of adjustment depends on domestic natural gas prices, which reflect the resource base, extraction…
Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity demand still increases by 28% between 2012 and 2040 Period Annual Growth__ U.S. electricity use Electricity use GDP percent growth (3-year rolling average) 1950s 9.8 4.1 1960s 7.3 4.4…
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History Projections 13% 2012 6 1993 2025 2040…
Gas-fueled units account for most projected capacity additions in the AEO2014 Reference case U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts History Projected 60 Other Renewables 50 Solar Wind 40 Oil and Natural Gas 30…
Natural gas surpasses coal as the largest generation source; this happens more quickly under high oil and gas resource assumptions billion kilowatthours 2012 2,500 History Projections 2,000 Reference coal 1,500 natural gas…
Coal generation is reduced in a high gas availability case, but it does not gain much in a low gas availability case U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2014 Reference Case High Oil and Gas Resource Low Oil and Gas…
An implicit or explicit carbon value growing at a 5% real rate has a major impact on the projected generation mix in AEO2014 U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 2014 Reference Case 10 Carbon Fee 25 Carbon Fee 6 6…
Both future policies and future natural gas market and economic conditions have a major impact on projected wind and solar generation Wind generation in 8 cases 2020, 2030 & 2040 Solar generation in 8 cases, 2020, 2030, 2040 billion…
Electricity sales have decreased in 5 of the last 6 years; prior to 2008, sales declined only twice in 58 years billion kilowatthours 300 Year over year generation fallen five times since 2008 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990…
EIA considered a low electricity sales growth case in AEO2014 Total electricity sales billion kilowatthours 2012 5,000 History Projections 4,000 3,000 Reference case Low Sales Growth case 2,000 1,000 0 2010 2015 2020…
More fossil capacity is retired in the Low Sales Growth case U.S. electric power sector capacity retirements gigawatts (cumulative) Reference case Low Sales Growth case 120 Coal 100 Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable / Other 80…
Generation fueled by natural gas grows much more slowly in the Low Sales Growth case U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours Reference case Low Sales Growth case 6 6 History 2012 Projections History 2012 Projections…
Natural gas Howard Gruenspecht ICF Energy Breakfast, May 15, 2014 18
Takeaways Natural gas North American natural gas production is more likely to be limited by demand than supply U.S. natural gas demand growth is likely to be concentrated in electricity and industrial uses; natural gas exports and…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040, when production exceeds 100 billion cubic feet per day U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 35…
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 30 11.0 Electric 25 power 20 8.5 Industrial* 15 11.2…
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 Refining and 20 7 related 6 16 5…
Projected U.S. natural gas trade depends on assumptions regarding resources and future technology advances Reference case High Oil and Gas Resource case billion cubic trillion cubic feet per year trillion cubic feet per year feet per day…
U.S. natural gas prices are expected to remain well below crude oil prices energy spot prices 2012 dollars per million Btu History 2012 Projections 30 2018 2040 25 20 Brent crude oil spot price Ratio: 15 3.2 Ratio: Oil to gas…
Oil Howard Gruenspecht ICF Energy Breakfast, May 15, 2014 26
Takeaways - Oil Tight oil clearly matters for measures of U.S. oil import dependence, but its significance to global markets is not yet clear The Middle East remains the cockpit of easy oil and will remain central to the global oil…
Increased production of tight oil and greater fuel efficiency drive decline in petroleum and other liquids imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 25 2016 2040 20 25% 15 32% 40% Net…
Growing U.S. oil production and rising demand in China have together made China the worlds largest net oil importer net imports for China and the United States million barrels per day Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid…
Differences in resource and technology assumptions between the Reference and High Resource cases have major implications for projected production Reference case High Oil and Gas Resource case million barrels per day million barrels per…
U.S. reliance on net imports of petroleum and other liquids is virtually eliminated by 2035 in High Oil and Gas Resource case net import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption percent History Projections Source: EIA,…
Total light-duty vehicle miles traveled ranges from 3.6 trillion miles in the High VMT case to 2.8 trillion miles in the Low VMT case billion miles 4,000 2012 History Projections High VMT 3,500 Reference 3,000 Low VMT 2,500 2,000…
Total light-duty vehicle transportation energy demand decreases by an average annual rate of 0.8% in the High VMT case, and 1.7% in the Low VMT case million barrels of oil equivalent per day History 2012 Projections 9 8 High VMT…
Total U.S. transportation carbon dioxide emissions increase by 3% in the High VMT case, decrease by 9% in the Low VMT case when compared to the Reference case million metric tons 2012 2,500 History Projections 2,000 High VMT…
Change in world liquid fuel balances: comparison of two 12- year historical periods and the AEO2014 Reference case over 2013-25 (million barrels per day) Projected Actual AEO 2014 Reference Case 197385 200012 201325 World Liquids…
World oil prices move together due to arbitrage global crude oil prices nominal dollars per barrel, monthly average 160 WTI Brent Dubai Tapis Mars 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
Supplementary slides Howard Gruenspecht ICF Energy Breakfast, May 15, 2014 38
Operating costs: existing plants with and without a value on carbon Fuel cost for existing coal and combined The crossover point for least-cost cycle natural gas units with a value placed on carbon dioxide emissions dispatch of coal…
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 600 535 500 Non-OECD 400 300 282 285 242 OECD 200 100 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year 7 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4…
OPEC member countries contribute almost half of the total increase in world liquid supplies world liquids production million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 60 62 50 Non-OPEC petroleum liquids 50 49 40 35 OPEC…
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