Emerging Oil & Gas Supplies: Future Prospects for Oil & Gas Production for Bipartisan Policy Center: Understanding the New Energy Landscape June 27, 2012 Washington, DC John Staub, Team Leader for Exploration and Production…
U.S. shale gas production comprised over 30 percent of total U.S. dry production, in 2011 shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US 25 Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) 20 Haynesville (LA…
Tight oil production for selected plays in March 2012 approaches 900,000 barrels per day thousand barrels of oil per day 1,000 Eagle Ford Bakken 800 Granite Wash Bonespring 600 Monterey Woodford Niobrara 400 Spraberry Austin…
Technology and its application can change rapidly: horizontal drilling replaced vertical drilling in the Barnett shale between 2003 and 2007 percentage of new wells drilled 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Vertical Wells Horizontal…
The shale gas & tight oil technology story is only beginning, with much yet to be written Technology is creating new resources out of rocks Production data provides a rearview mirror perspective see the changes, but with a delay EIA…
The shale gas & tight oil uncertainty Uncertainty is illustrated through scenario analysis of key variables resource volume, how well we understand geology characteristics, productivity of wells across a play and over time, and how…
Technically recoverable resources are dynamic and reflect changing understanding of geology, technology and economics Theory Experiment Commercial Practice Geology Engineering / Technology Economics Gas in Place Technically…
Shale gas resource potential and related costs remain highly uncertain Shale gas production trillion cubic feet Three alternate cases 25 High Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR) case assumes High EUR case with wells closer together…
Tight oil resource potential and production remain highly uncertain Tight oil production million barrels per day Three alternate cases 3.0 High TRR High Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR) case assumes High EUR case with wells…
Increased drilling in the Western Gulf Basin (Eagle Ford play) is driving up oil production Source: EIA, HPDI John Staub, Washington, DC June 27, 2012 10
Denver Basin (Niobrara play) production is expected to fall due to better productivity in other plays Source: EIA, HPDI John Staub, Washington, DC June 27, 2012 11
Steep decline curves for shale gas plays make the market more responsive to price million cubic feet per year 2,000 Cumulative production Haynesville Eagle Ford 100% 1,500 Woodford Marcellus 50% Fayetteville 1,000 0% 0 5 10 15…
Some questions to consider: What is possible What are the risks What do we know, and dont know, about the resources What is the possible rate and magnitude of production What is the breakeven cost, or profitability that is driving…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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