U.S. Oil Markets: Short and Mid Term Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy Energy Supply of North America Paris, France June 28, 2005
Key findings from EIAs outlooks In the short-term, tight markets and political uncertainties keep world oil prices high. Through 2025, oil remains the dominant source of U.S. energy use with about 40 percent of total energy demand.…
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval) 80 History Projections 70 60 Dollars per Barrel 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04…
World Oil Demand Growth 3.0 2.5 Million Barrels per Day 2.0 1.5 US 1.0 0.5 China 0.0 -0.5 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1999 Average World oil demand growth, led by China, is surging at very high…
World Oil Spare Production Capacity 6.0 Projections Million Barrels per Day 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1997 Average Spare capacity hit its lowest level in 30 years…
U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (Change from Year Ago) 600 History Projections 500 Thousand Barrels per Day 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 400 300 200 100 0 -100 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel…
U.S. Crude Oil Production 6.00 1.20 History Proj. 5.00 1.00 4.00 Total Change (Right Axis) 0.80 Million Barrels per Day Million Barrels per Day Lower 48 (Left Axis) 3.00 Alaska (Left Axis) 0.60 2.00 0.40 1.00 0.20…
U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 60 Petroleum History Projections 50 40 Natural Gas 30 Coal 20 Nuclear 10 Nonhydro Renewables 0 Hydropower 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy…
U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 140 History Projections 120 38% 100 Net Imports Consumption 27% 80 Production 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025…
World Oil Price, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per barrel) 70 History Projections 60 History High B 50 Reference 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections Reference 25 High B 20 Consumption 58% 68% Net Imports 15 56% High B 10 Production Reference 5 0 1960…
U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) 20 History Projections Transportation 15 10 5 Industrial Residential and Commercial Electric Power 0 1970 1980 1990 2003 2015 2025 Annual…
Lower-48 Crude Oil Production by Source, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 4 Lower-48 Onshore 2 Lower-48 Offshore Alaska 0 1970 1980 1990 2003 2015 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
Energy Policy Act of 2005 Status Passed House of Representatives in late April Under consideration in the Senate since mid-June Outlook Goals are to complete Senate action in late June, resolve differences in conference in July,…
Energy Policy Act of 2005: Major Tax Incentives House of Representatives focuses on oil and natural gas Reduces investment costs in natural gas infrastructure Promotes exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas…
Energy Policy Act of 2005: Other Oil and Natural Gas Provisions House of Representatives Increases exploration and development on Federal lands Authorizes oil production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Streamlines approval…
Energy Policy Act of 2005: Climate Change Action in the Senate last week: Adopted provision for voluntary emissions reductions through incentives for innovative technology Rejected provision for mandatory reductions of carbon…