Long-term Outlook for Oil and Other Liquid Fuels Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations February 2, 2011 Washington, D.C. Richard G. Newell, Administrator
What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference Case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel…
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections 225 High oil price 200 175 150…
Economic activity and population drive increases in oil use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2007-2035) percent per year 6 Population GDP per capita 5 Energy use per GDP 4 Oil* use per GDP…
Non-OECD liquids fuel use surpasses almost flat OECD fuel use by 2020 total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 80 70 Non-OECD 63 60 46 OECD 50 48 40 38 30 20 10 0 2000 2005 2010 2015…
China accounts for 40%, India for 10%, and the Middle East for 16% of projected liquids consumption growth total liquids consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 40 35 Other Non-OECD 32 27 30 Other OECD 26…
OPECs share of liquids rises slightly to 42% of total liquids production in EIAs Reference case; unconventional liquids more than triple liquids production million barrel per day 120 History Projections 111 100 Total 84 80 60…
Growth in OPEC conventional production comes primarily from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other Middle East countries conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2009 2020 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia…
Brazil, Russia, the United States, and Kazakhstan lead increases in non-OPEC conventional supplies conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2009 2020 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia Brazil Other Non- United…
Canadian oil sands and biofuels from Brazil and the U.S. account for 65% of the increase in unconventional liquids unconventional liquids production million barrels per day 6 5 2009 2020 2035 4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/ Biofuels…
U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic productionincluding biofuelsand greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 25 4% Biofuels including imports 20…
Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key sources of increased domestic liquids supply U.S. liquid fuels million barrels per day Total consumption Net crude oil imports Net product imports Crude oil…
Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck sales millions History Projections 20 15 Conventional gasoline Diesel 10 Gaseous and fuel cell Mild hybrid electric Hybrid…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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