Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release Reference Case AEO2014 Early Release Rollout Presentation Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Johns Hopkins University December 16, 2013 Washington, D.C. by Adam…
Key results from the AEO2014 Reference case Growing domestic production of natural gas and oil continues to reshape the U.S. energy economy, with crude oil approaching the 1970 all-time high of 9.6 million barrels per day Light-duty…
Growth in U.S. energy production outstrips growth in consumption leading to a reduction in net imports U.S. energy production and consumption quadrillion Btu History 2012 Projections 125 2034 2040 Consumption 3% 4% 100 16% Net…
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 10 U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per…
Transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History Projections 2012 30 2030 2040 25 20 44% 59%…
Shale gas leads U.S. production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale gas 60 20 50 15 40 Non-associated onshore Tight gas 10…
Electricity generation from natural gas surpasses coal electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours History 2012 Projections 2,500 2,000 Coal 1,500 Natural gas 1,000 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040…
Manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 Refining and 20 7 related 6 16 5 Bulk…
U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025 U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 10 2025 25 8 5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day) 20 6 Pipeline…
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 4 3 Distillate exports 2 Total petroleum product Motor gasoline exports net…
Energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level over the projection period carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History 2012 Projections 7 2005 6 5 4 3 Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below…
Petroleum and other liquid supply Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 12
U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 25 2005 2016 2040 20 Consumption 25% 32% 15 40% 60% Net imports 10 Domestic…
Increased production of tight oil and greater fuel efficiency drive decline in petroleum and other liquids imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 25 2016 2040 20 25% 15 32% 40% Net…
Natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks natural gas use by mode trillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 900 2.5 800 Approximate crude oil equivalent, 700 (thousand barrels…
Natural gas Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 16
U.S. natural gas prices remain well below crude oil prices energy spot prices 2012 dollars per million Btu History 2012 Projections 30 2018 2040 25 20 Brent crude oil spot price Ratio: 15 3.2 Ratio: Oil to gas 7.1 price ratio:…
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year billion cubic feet per day History 2012 Projections 40 100 30 75 Consumption 20 50 Domestic supply 10 25 Net…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 30 11.0 Electric 25 power 20 8.5 Industrial* 15 11.2 9.1 10 1.7…
Electricity Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 20
Growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 29% from 2012 to 2040 Period Annual Growth__ U.S. electricity use Electricity use GDP percent growth (3-year rolling average) 1950s 9.8 4.1 1960s 7.3 4.4 History 2012 1970s 4.7…
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in natural gas and renewable generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History Projections 13% 2012 6 1993 2025 2040…
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2012 and 2040 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2012 Projections 600 500 400 Wind 300 Biomass 200 Power sector Industrial…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
Supplemental slides Adam Sieminski, December 16, 2013 25
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory annual average price of Brent crude oil real 2012 dollars per barrel History 2012 Projections 225 High Oil Price 200…
U.S. production grows rapidly, particularly natural gas, renewables, and liquids in the near term U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu History 2012 Projections 120 2025 2040 100 80 34% 38% 60 Natural gas 31% 11% 12%…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting steady growth in GDP offset by improving energy efficiency U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2012 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding…
CO2 per dollar of GDP declines faster than energy use per dollar of GDP reflecting the shift to lower carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2012 Projections 2.0 2005 1.5 1.0 Energy use per capita…
Coal regains some competitive advantage relative to natural gas over time on a national average basis ratio of natural gas price to steam coal price Energy prices to the electric power sector 2012 dollars per Btu 2012 8 12 History 2012…
VMT per licensed driver decreases until 2024 in AEO2014 and is much lower than in AEO2013 due to consideration of age cohorts vehicle miles traveled per licensed driver thousand miles History 2012 Projection 14 AEO2013 12 AEO2014…
Light-duty vehicle travel is lower in AEO2014 than in AEO2013 light-duty vehicle miles traveled billion miles History 2012 Projections 4,000 AEO2013 AEO2014 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to lower growth in vehicle miles traveled light-duty vehicle liquids consumption quadrillion Btu 20 15 AEO2013 AEO2014 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
Global liquids supply increases by almost one-third with OPECs share relatively stable global liquids supply million barrels per day History 2012 Projections 125 2025 2040 100 44% 41% 75 41% OPEC 50 34% 35% Other non-OECD…
Why long-term projections might could will be wrong Different relative fuel prices Faster / slower demand growth Changing policies and regulations Changing consumer preferences Faster / slower technological progress…
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