When Will World Oil Production Peak Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration U.S. Department of Energy for 10th Annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia June 13, 2005
EIA's Short Answer Is: Not Soon But Within the Present Century.
36 Estimates of the Time of Peak World Oil Production (There Are More)
World Oil Production 1900-2003 and EIA's Forecasts to 2025 45 2004 International Energy Outlook 40 Forecasts 35 ------ High Economic Growth ------ Reference Case ------ Low Economic Growth 30 ------ History Billion…
Published Estimates of World Ultimate Recovery USGS 5% 2000 USGS Mean 2000 USGS 95% 2000 Campbell 1995 Masters 1994 Campbell 1992 Bookout 1989 Masters 1987 Martin 1984 Nehring 1982 Halbouty 1981 Meyerhoff 1979 Nehring 1978 Nelson 1977…
M. King Hubbert's 1956 Prediction of Peak U.S. Oil Production
EIA's Long-Term World Oil Supply Modeling Scenarios for Conventional Crude Oils (10o API Gravity…
EIA's Model For Conventional Oil Resources (10o API…
Comparative Advantages of the EIA Model Explicitly and quantitatively considers both supply and demand. Relies on the USGS WPA2000 resource estimates. They reflect the most modern, thorough, and detailed study of world petroleum…
Conventional Oil Resources, Central Scenario (10o API…
Conventional Oil Resources, All Nine Scenarios (10o API…
Summary Table For Conventional Oil Resources (10o API…
The World's Primary Additional Oil Resources Canadian Bitumen (Alberta; tar sands) 80 percent of the world's in-place bitumen (< 10o API) Venezuelan Extra-Heavy Oil (Orinoco Belt) 90 percent of the world's in-place extra-heavy oil…
Canadian Bitumen Estimated In-Place 2.372 trillion barrels Resource API Gravity 7.5-9.0 degrees Viscosity Up to 1,000,000 centipoise Host Formation Porosity 31 to 35 percent Characteristics Permeability 2.5 to 5.0 Darcies Resource…
Canadian Bitumen : A Potential Path from Resource Base to Production 80 Canadian Tar Sands (Bitumen) 2.37 Trillion Barrels In-Place 1.42 Trillion Barrels Recoverable (60 percent recovery factor estimated) 2078 Canadian Bitumen 60…
Venezuelan Extra-Heavy Oil Estimated In-Place 1.36 trillion barrels Resource API Gravity 8-10 degrees Viscosity 10,000+ centipoise Host Formation Porosity 30 to 36 percent Characteristics Permeability 1 to 17 Darcies Resource…
EIA Model Results Including Canadian Bitumen And Orinoco Extra-Heavy Oil Resources 120 USGS Based Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Including Heavy Oil 100 2065 Ultimate Recovery BBls -------------------- --------- 2055 Billion…
Summary of EIA Model Results Including Canadian Bitumen And Orinoco Extra-Heavy Oil Resources Ultimate Annual Recovery Demand Peak Peak Rate, Peak Rate, Resource Base BBbls Growth, % Year MMBbls/yr MMBbls/day Mean + 1.120 TBbls…
The Other Half of the Economic Equation: Demand Reduction 120 2049 3% Growth 100 2065 2% Growth Billion Barrels per Year 80 2094 1% Growth 60 40 20 History Decline R/P = 10 0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050…
Conclusions, Interpretations, and Implications A peak in world oil production is decades away not years away. Geopolitical factors may cause plateaus or even declines for considerable periods of time. Oil production growth rates of 1…
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