EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook for National Association of State Energy Officials October 10, 2012 Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics…
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Number of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region, winter 2012-13 Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil propane wood kerosene/other/no heating DC…
The U.S. winter 2012-13 heating season forecast is about 2% warmer than the 30-year average, but 18% colder than last winter U.S. current population-weighted heating degree-days 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec…
Expenditures are expected to increase this winter (October 1- March 31) for all fossil fuels Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel bill forecast than forecast than…
EIA expects residential natural gas prices to closely follow last winters prices dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) History Forecast 25 Residential price Winter 20 15 10 5 Henry Hub spot price 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2009…
EIA expects residential heating oil prices to average 2% higher this winter than last dollars per gallon 5 Home heating Forecast Winter oil retail price 4 3 2 Brent crude oil spot price 1 0 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan…
Heating oil remains much more expensive than natural gas U.S. average residential winter heating fuel prices dollars per million Btu 30 history forecast natural gas heating oil 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004-05 2005-06…
Recent changes in the heating oil market Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012 8
U.S. distillate stocks are at the low end of the normal range million barrels History Forecast 200 10% warmer 180 Base case 160 140 120 100 80 60 10% colder 40 20 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Note: Normal range (colored…
Distillate inventories in the Northeast have been below their normal range since mid-summer U.S. Northeast Total Distillate Inventories million barrels 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012…
Ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks are also low U.S. Northeast ULSD inventories million barrels 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2011 5 year average Source: EIA Weekly…
Futures market indicates a reduced incentive to hold inventories Time spreads for NYMEX heating oil futures contracts cents per gallon 4 3 backwardation: incentive to sell out of inventory 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 contango: incentive to…
Arbitrage between New York Harbor and Europe has closed Transatlantic Distillate Arbitrage: New York Harbor - Northwest Europe cents per gallon (five year average) 10 favors shipments to New York from Europe 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6…
Other factors that could lessen tightness in Northeastern distillate markets headed into the winter Delta Air Lines 185k bbl/d Trainer Refinery near Philadelphia has restarted after being idle for the last year and represented 16% of…
Changes in Northeast heating fuel consumption The Northeastern heating oil market is declining, though it remains the primary fuel in some areas Connecticut announced a plan to expand natural gas distribution networks Consumers are…
Secondary heating is most prevalent for homes using heating oil or Propane/LPG as their main heating source percent of households 35% 30% 25% Secondary heating source 20% electricity 15% wood natural gas 10% 5% 0% natural gas…
Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012
EIA updates state-level datasets with mapping features and energy infrastructure datasets Interactive map links to state level energy data Source: EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012 18
States pages include EIA datasets and fuel and energy infrastructure analyses. Source: EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012 19
Help features include navigation tips, available tools, and an introductory video Source: EIA Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook October 10, 2012 20
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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