The Current Global Energy Outlook Looking Beyond the Deepwater Horizon: Meeting Global Energy Needs in the 21st Century October 1, 2010 University of Maryland Richard G. Newell, Administrator
Outlook for Overall Global Energy Use and Emissions Richard Newell, Univ. Maryland, Oct 1, 2010 2
Non-OECD countries account for vast majority of the nearly 50% projected increase in global energy use energy consumption quadrillion Btu 800 739 Non-OECD 687 OECD w/o U.S. 639 U.S. 590 600 543 495 62% 400 50% 200 50%…
Economic and population growth drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2007-2035) percent per year Population GDP per capita Energy use per GDP Energy CO2 per energy 4…
Renewables are the fastest growing energy source (but from a relatively small base) world primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2007 Projections 250 Liquids 30% (including biofuels) 200 28% 35% 22% Coal 150 Share…
Assuming no policy changes, global energy-related CO2 emissions grow 43% from 2007 to 2035 energy CO2 emissions billion metric tons 45 42 Non-OECD 39 40 OECD w/o U.S. U.S. 36 35 34 30 32 67% 30 25 53% 20 15 10 47% 33%…
Delivered energy use by sector, and primary energy use in the electric power sector in 2007 global energy use quadrillion Btu 250 Electricity delivered Nuclear Renewables 200 Coal Natural Gas 14% Liquids 15% 150 18% 7% 23%…
Oil and Other Liquid Fuels Richard Newell, Univ. Maryland, Oct 1, 2010 8
Non-OECD transportation fuel use surpasses almost flat OECD fuel use by 2025 transportation sector energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections 140 Total 120 100 Non-OECD 80 60 OECD 40 20 0 2005 2010 2015…
Freight energy use increases faster than passenger energy use transportation energy consumption quadrillion Btu OECD Non-OECD 80 70 60 50 Freight 40 30 20 Passenger 10 0 2007 2020 2035 2007 2020 2035 Richard…
Alternative vehicle technologies meet half of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck sales millions 20 History Projections 18 16 14 Conventional gasoline 12 Diesel 10 Gaseous (CNG) 8 Mild hybrid…
EIAs outlooks reflect uncertainty in oil prices through a wide set of price cases light, sweet crude oil price 2008 dollars per barrel 225 History Projections 200 High Oil Price case 175 150 Reference case 125 100 75 50…
OPEC producers maintain an approximate 40% share of total liquids production in EIAs Reference case projection liquids production million barrel per day 120 History Projections 111 100 Total 85 80 60 52 48 Non-OPEC…
Growth in OPEC production of conventional liquids comes primarily from Saudi Arabia and Iraq conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007 2020 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Saudi Arabia Iran Iraq Other…
Brazil, Russia, Kazakhstan, and U.S. lead increases in non- OPEC conventional supplies conventional liquids production million barrels per day 16 14 2007 2020 2035 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Russia United Brazil Kazakhstan OECD…
Canadian oil sands and biofuels account for 70% of the increase in total unconventional liquids unconventional liquids production million barrels per day 6 5 2007 2020 2035 4 3 2 1 0 Oil sands/ Biofuels Extra-heavy…
Biofuels meet most of the growth in U.S. liquid fuels supply U.S. liquids supply million barrels per day History Projections 25 Biofuels including imports 20 Petroleum supply 15 Natural gas plant liquids 10 Net petroleum imports…
Natural Gas Richard Newell, Univ. Maryland, Oct 1, 2010 18
The Middle East accounts for almost one-third of the increase in global gas production Percent Change 2007-2035 Other OECD -9% Australia/New Zealand 164% United States 22% Central and South America 101% Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia…
Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane drive supply growth in U.S., Canada and China natural gas production in 2035 trillion cubic feet billion cubic meters 30 850 Tight gas, shale gas, and 25 708 coalbed methane 20 566 All…
Coal and Electricity Richard Newell, Univ. Maryland, Oct 1, 2010 21
Virtually all growth in global coal use occurs in non-OECD Asian nations, especially China and India world coal consumption quadrillion Btu 160 History Projections 140 120 Non-OECD Asia 100 80 60 40 Rest of the world 20…
Renewable sources are the fastest growing electricity source globally, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2035 world electricity generation trillion kilowatt hours 40 Liquids Nuclear Other renewables Hydroelectricity Natural…
Nonhydropower renewable sources meet 41% of total U.S. electricity generation growth from 2008 to 2035 U.S. generation billion kilowatt hours 600 History Projections 500 400 Biomass 300 200 Wind Solar Geothermal 100 0…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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