Natural Gas Trends and Projections: The IPAMS Region in the Broader U.S. Context for Independent Petroleum Association of the Mountain States June 24-25, 2010 Beaver Creek, CO. Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator…
Natural Gas at the National Level: Data and Projections Howard Gruenspecht, IPAMS, 6-25-2010 2
Natural gas wellhead price is projected to rise from low levels experienced during 2008-2009 recession 2008 dollars per thousand cubic feet History Projections 10 8 6 4 2 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
In AEO2010, demand and supply of natural gas both grow to 2035. Supply grows faster, reducing the role of imports trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 Consumption 6% Net imports 13% 20 Domestic supply 15 10 1990 1995…
Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in other supply to meet consumption growth and reduce imports trillion cubic feet History Projections 25 Alaska 20 Shale gas Coalbed methane 15 Non-associated onshore 10 5…
As over the past decade, developments in the electricity sector drive changes in overall demand for natural gas trillion cubic feet 10 History Projections 8 Electric Power Industrial 6 Residential 4 Commercial 2 Lease and…
Slow growth in electricity use is projected 3-year rolling average percent growth Period Annual Growth History 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10 2000-2008 0.9 2008-2035 1.0 8 Projections 6 4 2 0…
Renewables gain electricity market share; coal share declines billion kilowatthours and percent shares 6,000 History Projections 5,000 17.0 4,000 Renewable 9.1 20.8 Natural gas 21.4 3,000 2,000 48.5 Coal 43.8 Oil and other…
IPAMS States: Data and Projections in the U.S. Context Howard Gruenspecht, IPAMS , 6-25-2010 9
Natural Gas Demand in the IPAMS Region Has Grown Trillion Cubic Feet Rockies 3.0 Consumption as a 2.5 Percentage of Total U.S. 2.0 1997 8.4 1998 9.1 1.5 1999 9.0 2000 9.3 1.0 2001 10.4 0.5 2002 9.6 2003 9.9 0.0 2004 10.5…
Marketed Natural Gas Production for the 13 IPAMS States and The United States, 1967-2008/9 Trillion cubic feet U.S. Total 25 2009 = 21.9 Tcf 20 15 10 13 IPAMS States Total 5 0 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985…
Natural Gas Spot Prices at Rockies Market Locations and the Henry Hub Converged Over the Past Winter Dollars per MMBtu 16 Difference between Rockies prices and the price at the Henry 14 Hub widens as the lack of Henry Hub…
Pipeline Capacity from Wyoming, Colorado and Utah Billion cubic feet per day REX West Begins 12 Export capacity from Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Natural Gas Supply exported from WY, CO, UT 4 3 Jan-01…
Active Oil and Natural Gas Rigs in IPAMS States, 2000-2010 Oil and Natural Gas Rigs 500 Oil and Natural Gas Rigs 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Arizona Colorado…
Gas Plays with High Liquids Content Are Relatively Attractive at the AEO 2010 Reference Case Prices Source: Bentek Howard Gruenspecht, IPAMS, 6-25-2010 15
AEO2010: Change in Natural Gas Supply by Region trillion cubic feet 0.46 Canada 0.10 0.04 Production 1.48 W. Can. Coast* LNG Imports 0.02 0.39 -0.31 -0.11 0.97 -0.18 -0.53 Northeast* Rocky Mountain -0.82 1.15 -0.11…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
Oil to natural gas price ratio remains high over the AEO2010 projection Oil and natural gas prices 2008 dollars per million Btu Ratio of oil price to natural gas price 25 20 5 Crude oil 15 10 4 5 U.S. natural gas wellhead 0…
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