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NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA

EIA · Oct 7, 2008 · 18 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 1
    EIA Short-Term and Winter Fuels Outlook Howard Gruenspecht Acting Administrator, Energy Information Administration NASEO 2008/09 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference October 7, 2008 Washington, DC Short-Term Energy Outlook,…
  2. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 2
    U.S. average fuel expenditures are expected to be higher for all fuels this winter (October March). Average U.S. Household Winter (2008-2009) Heating Fuel Expenditures Percent Change from Last Winter If 10% Warmer If 10% Colder Fuel…
  3. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 3
    Winter 2008-09 is expected to be 2% colder than 2007-08, but still 2% warmer than 30-year average. U.S. Heating Degree-Days Population-Weighted 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 2007-2008 2008-2009 (NOAA…
  4. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 4
    Natural gas prices are expected to be higher than last winter. Henry Hub Winter Average Spot Price Residential Winter Average Price 10% Colder = 10.55/ mcf 10% Colder = 15.22/ mcf Base Case = 8.96/ mcf Base Case = 14.82/ mcf 10%…
  5. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 5
    U.S. natural gas in storage is projected to remain above historical averages. Deviation from 2003-2007 Average, Billion Cubic Feet 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 Forecast Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10…
  6. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 6
    Natural gas heating bills are projected to be higher for all regions this winter. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using natural Average Total gas as primary heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West…
  7. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 7
    Crude oil prices are expected to remain high. 150 125 WTI 100 Price Dollars 75 per Barrel 50 25 Forecast 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 6 Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2008
  8. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 8
    The balance between global consumption and non-OPEC supply growth drives oil prices. 7 Non-OPEC Supply (Left Axis) Forecast 70 Change World Consumption (Left Axis) 6 60 from Prior WTI Crude Oil Price (Right Axis) 5 50 Year Change…
  9. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 9
    Multiple and hard-to-predict uncertainties drive the oil market forecast. Global Economic Growth OPEC Non-OPEC Production Supply Growth Decisions Refinery Weather Outages Venezuela Nigeria Iran Others 8 Short-Term Energy…
  10. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 10
    Gasoline inventories are low. PADD 1 (East Coast) Gasoline Stocks PADD 1C (Southeast) Gasoline Stocks 80 25 Sep. 26: 9.2 million barrels below previous 5-year average 70 Million Million Barrels 60 Barrels 20 50 Sep. 26: 3.5…
  11. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 11
    Retail heating oil prices are projected to average about 50 cents per gallon higher than last winter. October 2008 March 2009 Average 10% Colder = 3.98/ gallon Winter 5.00 Base Case = 3.89/ gallon 10% Warmer = 3.82/ gallon 4.00…
  12. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 12
    Distillate inventories are low. 160 10% Warmer 150 140 130 Million 120 Barrels 110 100 Actual / Base Case 10% Colder 90 Forecast 80 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Colored bands represent normal range published in…
  13. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 13
    U.S. winter heating oil expenditures projected to increase for all regions. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using heating Average Total oil as primary heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures West 1%…
  14. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 14
    Residential propane prices are expected to average about 23 cents per gallon higher than last winter. 3.00 Winter 2.50 2.00 Dollars per 1.50 Gallon October 2008 March 2009 Average 1.00 10% Colder = 2.81/ gallon Base Case =…
  15. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Propane inventories are low. 80 10% Warmer 70 60 50 Million Barrels 40 30 20 10% Colder 10 Actual / Base Case Forecast 0 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Colored bands represent normal range published in EIA, Weekly…
  16. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Propane expenditures are projected to increase in all regions. Households using Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) propane as primary heating fuel Average Total Consumption Price Expenditures West 4% West -2% +8% +5%…
  17. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 17
    Winter electricity expenditure increases are expected to be smaller than other fuels. Percent Change from Last Winter (Projected) Households using electricity as primary Average Total heating fuel Consumption Price Expenditures…
  18. NASEO 2008 and 2009 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Summary: On average, U.S. households will pay about 150 (15%) more for heating this winter. Higher expenditures are driven by higher fuel prices and weather-related increases in consumption. Under the baseline forecast, natural…

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