Annual Energy Outlook 2015 AEO2015 Rollout Presentation Center for Strategic and International Studies April 14, 2015 Washington, D.C. by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
Key results from AEO2015 In most AEO2015 cases, U.S. net energy imports, including all fuels, decline and ultimately end by 2030 for the first time since the 1950s Strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight formations…
Key results from AEO2015 (continued) Improved efficiency of energy consumption in end-use sectors and a shift away from more carbon-intensive fuels help to stabilize U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions, which remain below the…
Overview Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 4
Crude oil price projection is lower in the AEO2015 Reference case than in AEO2014, particularly in the near term Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 160 AEO2014 120 AEO2015 80 40…
Reductions in energy intensity largely offset impact of GDP growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 120 2025 2040 Renewables (excluding liquid…
U.S. net energy imports continue to decline in the near term, reflecting increased oil and natural gas production coupled with slow demand growth U.S. net energy imports quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 40 30 20 10 Low Oil…
CO2 emissions are sensitive to the influence of future economic growth and energy price trends on energy consumption energy-related carbon dioxide emissions million metric tons History 2013 Projections 6,250 6,000 High Economic…
CO2 emissions per dollar of GDP decline faster than energy use per dollar of GDP with a shift towards lower-carbon fuels energy and emission intensity index, 2005=1 History 2013 Projections 2.0 2005 1.5 1.0 Energy use per…
New AEO table browser Signature product redeveloped for EIAs state-of-the-art table browser experience Compares up to 6 cases from AEO Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 10
Petroleum and other liquid supply Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 11
AEO2015 explores scenarios that encompass a wide range of future crude oil price paths Brent crude oil spot price 2013 dollars per barrel History 2013 Projections 250 High Oil Price 200 150 Reference 100 Low Oil Price 50 High…
U.S. crude oil production rises above previous historical highs before 2020 in all AEO2015 cases, with a range of longer-term outcomes U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2013 2013 2013 20 High Oil and Gas Low…
Growth of onshore crude oil production varies across supply regions, affecting pipeline and midstream infrastructure needs change between 2013 and 2040 in U.S. lower 48 onshore crude oil production by region million barrels per day 10…
Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drive projected decline in oil imports U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2013 Projections 25 2020 2040 20 14% 17% 15 33% Natural…
Net liquids imports provide a declining share of U.S. liquid fuels supply in most AEO2015 cases; in two cases the nation becomes a net exporter net crude oil and petroleum product imports as a percentage of total U.S. supply percent…
In the transportation sector, motor gasoline use declines; diesel fuel, jet fuel, and natural gas use all grow transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2013 Projections 30 2030 2040 25 24% Diesel 31% 31%…
U.S. net exports of petroleum products vary with the level of domestic oil production given current limits on U.S. crude oil exports U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day High Oil and Gas History Reference…
Natural gas Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 19
Future domestic natural gas prices depend on both domestic resource availability and world energy prices average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas 2013 dollars per million Btu History 2013 Projections 12 High Oil Price 9…
Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 Projections 40 100 35 90 30 80 25 70 Shale gas and tight…
Natural gas consumption growth is driven by increased use in all sectors except residential U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History Projections 35 Residential Commercial Transportation** Electric…
Growth in manufacturing output and use of natural gas reflect high natural gas supply and low prices, particularly in near term manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu billion cubic feet per day 9 24 8 Food 20 7 6…
Projected U.S. natural gas exports reflect the spread between domestic natural gas prices and world energy prices U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet billion cubic feet per day History 2013 2013 Projections 2013 16…
Electricity Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 25
Growth in electricity use slows, but electricity use still increases by 24% from 2013 to 2040 Period Average Growth__ U.S. electricity use and GDP Electricity use GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) 1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s…
Over time the electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and gas-fired generation electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours 13% History 2013 Projections 6 1993 2025 2040 5 31% 4…
Non-hydro renewable generation grows to double hydropower generation by 2040 renewable electricity generation by fuel type billion kilowatthours History 2013 Projections 750 600 450 Conventional Wind Hydroelectric Power 300…
Growth in wind and solar generation meets a significant portion of projected total electric load growth in all AEO2015 cases U.S. renewable generation in all sectors by fuel billion kilowatthours 1,250 2040 1,000 Wind 750 Solar…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
Preview of coming attractions Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 31
Upcoming: improved international energy web presence New data browser to replace IES Better map-based navigations and visualizations Consolidate CABs/CANs Status: dev integration Launch: beta in April Annual Energy…
Upcoming: EIA-930hourly survey of electricity balancing authorities First near-real time report for EIA Dashboard view of the U.S. power grid Highly anticipated by EIA customers Status: dev largely complete; awaiting OES data to…
Upcoming: Final four reports on EIA crude oil exports Over the next two months, the final four reports will cover: 1) technical options for U.S. refineries to facilitate the processing additional light tight oil 2) implications of…
Now playing: Crude by rail and EIA-914data updates Both high priority Crude by rail due out with PSM, March 30 Updated 914 expected in June with new data collection Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 35
Now playing: New Microsoft Excel add-in for Windows Enables spreadsheet users inside and outside of EIA to pull recent EIA/FRED data into their existing workbooks Annual Energy Outlook 2015, April 14, 2015 36
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