U.S. Electricity Outlook and Issues Bipartisan Policy Center Workshop on Reliability Impacts of Power Sector Developments December 7, 2010 Washington, DC Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator (howard.gruenspechteia.gov)
Electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable in 2009 2009 Total net generation: 2009 Non-hydro renewable net generation: 3,953 billion kWh 141 billion kWh Other gases Nuclear 0.3% 20.2% Conventional…
Growth in electricity use continues to slow percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10 2000-2009 0.5 2009-2035 1.0 8 Projections 6 4 2 0…
Key factors affecting the response to regulations affecting existing generation facilities in the electric power sector Capital cost estimates for environmental retrofits at existing coal plants All else equal, higher costs make…
Key factors (continued) Projected fuel costs play a large role in the competitiveness of certain technologies, such as gas-fired generation The decline in both current and projected natural gas prices in recent years increases the…
What NEMS does . NEMS represents load growth, dispatch, capacity additions, and capacity retirements in each region (22 regions in upcoming AEO2011, 13 in AEO2010 and earlier editions) subject to various constraints hourly, daily…
A schematic of the NEMS electricity market model and its connections to the rest of NEMS Load and Demand Sudmodule Howard Gruenspecht, Bipartisan Policy Center Reliability Impacts Workshop, December 2010 7
. and does not do NEMS is not a load flow model with an explicit representation of the transmission system and reliability no explicit representation of reactive power no explicit modeling of spinning reserves and other ancillary…
The projected electricity generation mix in the reference case gradually shifts to lower carbon options electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 6 5 4 Natural gas 23% Renewable 3 10% 2…
Several factors, including regulatory changes, could shift the fuel mix and/or emissions from electric generation relative to the Reference case Pending and possible regulatory policies addressing non-GHG emissions from coal-fired…
operating costs: existing plants with and w/o climate policies Fuel Cost for Existing Coal and Combined The crossover point for least- Cycle Natural Gas Units with a Value cost dispatch of coal and natural Placed on Carbon Dioxide…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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