Long-Term Outlook for World Energy Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration African Oil and Gas Forum December 1, 2006 Bethesda, MD
World Oil Prices,1980-2030 (2004 dollars per barrel) 100 History Projections High Price 80 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1995 2004 2015 2030 International Energy Outlook 2006
World and Regional GDP, 2003, and GDP Growth Rates, 2003-2030 (annual average percent) (billion 2000 dollars) World 50,786 Non-OECD Asia 13,516 North America 12,273 OECD Europe 10,799 OECD Asia 4,716 Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia…
World Marketed Energy Consumption, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) History Projections 900 835 800 High Economic Growth 722 700 600 631 500 Reference 400 Low Economic Growth 300 200 100 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010…
World Energy Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 450 413 400 OECD 350 309 300 Non-OECD 294 270 250 234 200 186 150 100 50 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and…
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 33% Oil 27% 200 38% 26% Coal 150 Share of 24% World Natural Gas 100 Total 24% Renewables 9% 50 8% 5% 6% Nuclear 0 1980 1985…
World Oil Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (million barrels per day) 70 60 58 60 OECD 54 50 49 Non-OECD 45 40 32 30 20 10 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD…
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2006 (billion barrels) Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait UAE Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Qatar Mexico Algeria Brazil World Total = Kazakhstan…
World Liquids Production (million barrels per day) 140 120 Unconventional 100 80 OPEC Conventional 60 40 Non-OPEC Conventional 20 0 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 International Energy Outlook 2006
World Natural Gas Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 120 108 100 OECD 80 Non-OECD 74 72 63 60 50 45 40 20 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD…
World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2006, and Cumulative Consumption, 2003-2030 (trillion cubic feet) Middle East Reserves Cumulative Consumption, 2003-2030 Russia Africa Asia World Natural Gas Reserves = 6,112…
World Coal Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (million short tons) 8,000 7,125 7,000 OECD 6,000 Non-OECD 5,018 5,000 4,000 3,436 2,964 2,774 3,000 2,476 2,000 1,000 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia…
World Recoverable Coal Reserves as of January 1, 2003 (billion short tons) United States Russia China India Australia South Africa World Total = Ukraine 1,001 Billion Short Tons Kazakhstan Yugoslavia Other…
World Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 2003-2030 (percent) 2003 History Projections 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables International Energy…
World Nuclear Power Generation, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 2,500 OECD Non-OECD 2,294 2,307 2,135 2,000 1,500 993 1,000 647 500 388 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe…
World Renewables Consumption, 2003, 2015, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 40 37 35 30 OECD 27 Non-OECD 26 25 22 20 17 15 15 10 5 0 2003 2015 2030 North America OECD Europe OECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia Non-OECD…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2006, February 2006, next release December 5, 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006 Examples…