Long-Term Energy Market Trends from the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Briefing to the International Energy Agency June 18, 2007 www.eia.doe.gov 1
World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) 100 History Projections 80 High Price 60 Reference 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 2
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections Liquid Fuels & Other Petroleum 50 40 Coal 30 Natural Gas 20 Nuclear 10 Renewables 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) 1.2 History Projections 1.0 per capita 0.8 per dollar real GDP 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
Consumption of Liquids and Other Petroleum Products by Sector, 1970-2030 (million barrels per day) 20 History Projections Transportation 15 10 5 Industrial Residential and Commercial Electric Power 0 1970 1980…
Average Fuel Economy of U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicles, 1980-2030 (miles per gallon) 35 Projections Cars History 30 All Light-Duty Vehicles 25 Light Trucks 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1995 2005 2015 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. Sales of Unconventional Light-Duty Vehicles, 2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold) 2,500 Hybrids Flex Fuel 2,000 Turbo Direct Injection Diesel Gaseous Electric 1,500 Fuel Cell 1,000 500 0 2015 2030 Annual…
Ethanol Consumption as E85 and Blended with Motor Gasoline, 1981-2030 (billion gallons) 20 History Projections 15 Ethanol Blended into Motor Gasoline 10 5 Ethanol in E85 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual…
U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Deepwater Offshore Alaska Shallow Water Offshore 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030…
Total U.S. Unconventional Oil Production in Two Cases, 2005-2030 (thousand barrels per day) 2,500 2,000 High Price 1,500 1,000 500 Reference 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 10
Liquid Fuels Supply, Consumption, and Imports (million barrels per day) 30 Low Price History Projections 25 High Price 20 49% 61% 67% Consumption Net Imports 15 60% High Price Production 10 Low Price 5 0 1980 1990…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) History 10 Projections Industrial* 8 Electric Power 6 Residential 4 Commercial 2 Transportation** 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 * Includes…
U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 10 History Projections 8 Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional 6 Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore 4 Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore…
U.S. Unconventional Natural Gas Production, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections 7 6 5 Tight Sands 4 3 2 Coalbed Methane 1 Gas Shales 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy…
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net Imports 21% 20 16% Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic…
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History Projections 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 16
U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 40 35.0 30 27.5 24.2 Electric 22.8 Power 20 10 Coal to Liquids Other 0 2005 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 17
U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2006-2030 (gigawatts) 60 Natural Gas Coal Renewables 40 Nuclear 20 0 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 19
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 2005 and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 4,000 2005 2030 57 - percent of total 3,000 50 2,000 15 16 1,000 19 19 9 9 3 2 0 Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum Annual…
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 9,000 History Projections 8,000 7,000 7,950 in 2030 5,945 in 2005 6,000 6,944 in 2020 6,214 in 2010 5,000 Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity,…
Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030.... Traditional fossil fuels are expected to continue to meet the bulk of energy requirements over the projection period U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, February 2007 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007 Examples of Special Analyses Economic…
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