EIA Winter Fuels Outlook For NASEO October 7, 2014 Washington, D.C. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
EIA actions to improve winter fuels information More Detailed Weekly Propane Stock Data In addition to weekly PADD- level propane stocks, EIA will publish figures for Kansas (Conway hub), Michigan, Ohio, and a 4-state total for MN,…
New EIA Winter Heating Fuels page centralizes information on stocks and prices across fuels EIA created a new webpage that organizes the agencys weekly pricing and storage data on heating oil, propane, and natural gas for each state,…
Weather and Fuel-use Outlook (Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2014) NASEO October 7, 2014 4
Winter Fuels Outlook focuses on household fuels: prices, use, and expenditures In the EIA 2014-15 Outlook, which focuses on households, EIA expects the average household heating bill in all regions of the country will be lower this…
Expenditures are expected to be lower this winter (October 1 March 31) unless there is a repeat of last winters cold weather Percent change in fuel bills from last winter (forecast) Base case If 10% warmer If 10% colder Fuel bill…
U.S. heating degree days this winter are forecast by NOAA to be 12% lower than last winter and 3% lower than the 10-year average heating degree days, weighted by current U.S. population 1,100 1,000 900 800 700 10-year average 600…
Heating degree days trending down over time U.S. heating degree days 6,000 5,000 forecast 4,000 3,000 Winter (Oct-Mar) heating degree days 2,000 2013-14 4,112 Previous 10-winter average 3,719 Percent difference 11% 1,000 0…
Heating fuel market shares vary regionally Share of homes by primary space heating fuel and Census Region Midwest Northeast West natural gas electricity heating oil and kerosene propane wood other/no heating South United…
Natural Gas: Focus on the Northeast NASEO October 7, 2014 10
Winter 2014-15 takeaways and potential issues natural gas Natural gas production gains contributed to record storage injections this year. Natural gas production this winter is projected to average 71 Bcf/day, an increase of 3 Bcf/day…
EIA expects residential natural gas prices to be slightly higher than last winters prices dollars per thousand cubic feet (mcf) 20 history forecast 18 residential price winter 16 14 12 10 8 6 Henry Hub natural gas spot…
Forecast natural gas inventories on Sep. 26 are 373 bcf lower than last winter, and 399 bcf below the previous 5-year average billion cubic feet 4,500 history forecast 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 10% warmer 2,000 Base case 1,500 10%…
Key pipelines delivering natural gas into New England have been at or close to capacity on most days since the start of last winter Source: Derived from the Ventyx Energy Velocity Suite. Scheduled volumes based on Algonquin Gas…
Current forward natural gas prices in Boston, and to a lesser extent New York, indicate the likelihood of constraints again this winter NASEO October 7, 2014 15
Expectations for natural gas prices in the Northeast are reflected in forward market wholesale power prices NASEO October 7, 2014 16
Propane Supply and Infrastructure: Focus on the Midwest and Northeast NASEO October 7, 2014 17
Winter 2014-15 takeaways and potential issues propane Primary propane stocks in the Gulf Coast and Midwest are currently 10 million barrels (17%) above this time last year Propane production from natural gas plants is up and is…
PADD 2 (Midwest) propane inventories are currently above the five-year average PADD 2 propane* inventories million barrels 35 Typical corn harvest dates (Sept 20 Nov 10) 30 28.0 inventory level (9/26/14) 25 20 15 27.5 previous…
U.S. propane production and trade trends U.S. propane and propylene production, imports, and exports million barrels per day 1.8 1.6 1.4 total production 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 imports exports 0.2 0.0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010…
Last year, a large (and wet) corn crop increased PADD2 propane demand; another big crop is likely, but crop drying needs still unclear propane prime supplier sales/deliveries thousand barrels per day 2013 corn harvest increased propane…
National Propane Gas Association (NPGA): state affiliates indicate strong secondary and tertiary storage fill ILLINOIS retailers indicate the majority of end-users have filled tanks, record corn crop could mean large demand for…
Evolving Midwest propane supply situation Markets Prices: Summer price premium at Conway encouraged storage builds and off-season buying Secondary and tertiary storage: Distributors promoting early fills for customers Supply…
Heating Oil NASEO October 7, 2014 25
Winter 2014-15 takeaways and potential issues heating oil Brent crude oil spot price forecast to average 9/barrel (22 cents/gal) lower this winter. Distillate stocks in the Northeast totaled 29.3 million barrels on September 26, 0.2…
EIA expects residential heating oil prices to average 6% lower this winter than last dollars per gallon 5 history winter forecast home heating oil retail price 4 3 2 Brent crude oil spot price 1 0 Jan 2010 Jan 2011…
Going into winter, distillate inventories remain at the low end of the previous 5-year range million barrels history forecast 200 180 2009-2013 range 10% warmer 160 140 120 100 80 Base case 60 10% colder 40 20 0 2012 2013…
Heating oil sulfur specifications lowered in five states as of July 2014 15 ppm 15 ppm Note: Specifications change on July 1 of the years shown, with the exception of Maine's 15 ppm requirement, which changes on January 1,…
Electricity NASEO October 7, 2014 30
Winter electricity bill forecasts are slightly lower in most regions Percent change from last winter (forecast) Regional share of all U.S. households that use electricity as primary space Average Total heating fuel Consumption…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
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