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State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA

EIA · Aug 8, 2005 · 36 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 1
    U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets: Short-Term and Mid-Term Outlook State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference Pinehurst, North Carolina Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration August 8, 2005
  2. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 2
    Key findings from EIAs outlooks In the short term, tight markets and political uncertainties keep world oil prices high. For the coming winter, fuel supplies should remain adequate, but prices will be high. Through 2025, oil remains…
  3. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 3
    Crude Oil Prices Likely to Remain Above 55 Through 2006 West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (Base Case and 95% Confidence Interval) Forecast 80 70 Dollars per Barrel 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-…
  4. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 4
    World Oil Demand Growth Continues to Surge, Led by China 3.0 2.5 Million Barrels per Day 2.0 1.5 U.S. 1.0 0.5 China 0.0 -0.5 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1999 Average Source: EIA Short-Term Energy…
  5. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 5
    Will OPEC Keep Markets Adequately Supplied 33 History Projections 31 Million Barrels per Day 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 15 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 OPEC 10 (OPEC excluding Iraq) Iraq OPEC…
  6. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 6
    OECD Inventories in Normal Range, But Forward Cover Low OECD Commercial Petroleum Inventories 3.0 60 Forward Cover (right axis) 2.9 55 Billion Barrels 2.8 50 2.7 45 Days 2.6 40 2.5 35 2.4 30 Inventories (left axis)…
  7. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 7
    World Oil Spare Production Capacity Continues to Decline 6 Forecast Million Barrels per Day 5 4 3 2 1 0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1997 Average Source: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term…
  8. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 8
    Lack of Excess Capacity and Low Forward Cover Thrust Prices Upward 70 14 Dollars per Barrel/Forward Cover 60 12 Million Barrels per Day 50 WTI Spot Price (2005) 10 OECD Forward Cover World Excess Production Capacity…
  9. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 9
    OECD Inventories and Spare Production Capacity Have Explained Most of Recent Price Variation 60 WTI Spot Price 50 Dynamic Forecast (Inventories and Dollars per Barrel 40 Spare Capacity) 30 20 10 0 Jan-92 Jan-93…
  10. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 10
    U.S. Crude Inventories Projected to Remain in Normal Range U.S. Crude Oil Inventory 360 History Forecast 340 Million Barrels 320 300 280 260 Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06…
  11. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 11
    Crude Oil Outlook Conclusions U.S. and global oil demand continues to grow, led by China and the U.S. Higher OPEC and non-OPEC production is expected in 2005 OECD inventories should remain in normal range this year and next, but…
  12. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 12
    Winter Crude Oil and Distillate Price Outlook 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 Residential 1.40 Heating Oil /Gallon 1.20 1.00 Wholesale 0.80 Distillate Forecast 0.60 Crude Oil 0.40 (WTI) 0.20 0.00 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04…
  13. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 13
    Distillate Winter Demand Expected to Continue to Grow U.S. Distillate Product Supplied 4,600 4,400 Thousand Barrels Per Day 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 5-Year Average 3,400 2005-2006 2004-2005 3,200 2003-2004…
  14. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 14
    Distillate Production Higher Leading Up to Peak Demand Season U.S. Distillate Production 4,400 4,200 Thousand Barrels Per Day 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 5-Year Average 2005-2006 3,200 2004-2005 2003-2004 3,000 May…
  15. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 15
    Strong Crack Spreads Encourage High Refinery Production Gulf Coast Products vs. WTI Crude Oil 45 40 Gasoline 35 Heating Oil Cents per Gallon 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1/4/02 4/4/02 7/4/02 10/4/02 1/4/03 4/4/03 7/4/03…
  16. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 16
    Distillate Net Imports May Be Constrained This Winter U.S. Distillate Net Imports 500 450 5-Year Average 2005-2006 Thousand Barrels Per Day 400 2004-2005 350 2003-2004 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 May Mar Jul…
  17. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 17
    Trans-Atlantic Arbitrage Not Presently Favoring Imports New York Harbor vs. Rotterdam 25 Gasoline 20 Heating Oil 15 Cents per Gallon 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 1/4/02 4/4/02 7/4/02 10/4/02 1/4/03 4/4/03 7/4/03 10/4/03…
  18. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 18
    Distillate Stocks Expected to be in Normal Range This Winter U.S. Total Distillate Stocks 160 Actual Forecast 150 140 Million Barrels 130 120 110 100 90 80 Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- 01…
  19. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 19
    Consumer Prices and Expenditures Heating Oil (Northeast) 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005-2006 2003 2004 2005 Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption 743 700 697 698 (gals.) Average Price 1.34 1.37 1.84 2.13 Expenditures 993…
  20. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 20
    Heating Oil Outlook Conclusion Distillate stocks are likely to be about average going into the winter Prices are likely to average nearly 30 cents higher than last winter, given current crude oil price forecast Residential…
  21. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 21
    Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Propane Price Outlook 2.00 10 Forecast 1.80 9 Residential 1.60 Propane 8 1.40 7 1.20 6 /Gallon /MCF 1.00 5 Natural Gas 0.80 (Wellhead) 4 0.60 3 Crude Oil 0.40 (WTI) 2 0.20 1 0.00 0 Jan-01…
  22. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 22
    U.S. Propane Stocks 90 Actual Forecast 80 Average Range 70 Million Barrels 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Source: Energy…
  23. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 23
    Consumer Prices and Expenditures Propane (Midwest) 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2003 2004 2005 2006 Actual Actual Actual Forecast (est.) Consumption 940 883 873 912 (gals.) Average Price 1.20 1.30 1.55 1.78 Expenditures 1,124 1,148…
  24. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 24
    Propane Outlook Conclusion U.S. inventories likely to remain at or above the top of the historic average range Propane prices are expected to be about 20 cents/gallon higher this winter than last Residential customers fuel…
  25. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 25
    Crude Oil and Gasoline Price Outlook 2.50 Forecast 2.00 Regular Gasoline 1.50 /Gallon Wholesale Gasoline 1.00 0.50 Crude Oil (WTI) 0.00 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Sources: History: EIA;…
  26. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 26
    U.S. Gasoline Inventories Are High, But Demand Growth Puts Forward Cover Relatively Lower U.S. Total Gasoline Inventories 240 30 Days Supply (right axis) 230 25 Million Barrels Days Supply 220 20 210 15 200 10 190 5…
  27. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 27
    Gasoline Outlook Conclusion U.S. inventories are likely to remain high in the historic average range, but with less forward cover Gasoline prices should remain relatively stable through the winter, but high by historical…
  28. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 28
    U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections 50 Petroleum 40 Natural Gas 30 Coal 20 Nuclear 10 Nonhydro Renewables Hydropower 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy…
  29. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 29
    U.S. Energy Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 140 History Projections 120 38% 100 Net Imports Consumption 27% 80 60 Production 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual…
  30. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 30
    World Oil Price, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per barrel) 70 History Projections 60 History High B 50 Reference 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
  31. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 31
    U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections Reference 25 High B 20 Consumption Net Imports 58% 68% 15 56% High B 10 Production Reference 5 0 1960 1970…
  32. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 32
    U.S. Petroleum Consumption by Sector, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) 20 History Projections Transportation 15 10 Industrial 5 Residential and Commercial Electric Power 0 1970 1980 1990 2003 2015 2025 Annual Energy…
  33. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 33
    U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1970-2025 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 4 Lower-48 Onshore 2 Lower-48 Offshore Alaska 0 1970 1980 1990 2003 2015 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
  34. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 34
    U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections 30 28% 25 Consumption Net Imports 15% 20 Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 7 6.4 6 2003 5…
  35. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 35
    U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 12 History Projections Industrial* 10 8 Electric Generators 6 Residential 4 Commercial 2 Transportation** 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 *…
  36. State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference – EIA – slide 36
    U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production, 1990 - 2025 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections 10 Onshore Unconventional 9 8 7 Nonassociated 6 Onshore Conventional 5 4 Nonassociated Offshore 3 Associated/Dissolved 2 Alaska 1 0…

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