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Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA

EIA · Nov 28, 2006 · 36 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 1
    Short and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso, Administrator Energy Information Administration Global Policy Group November 28, 2006 Washington, DC
  2. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 2
    West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price (dollars per barrel) 100 90 History Projections 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
  3. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 3
    World Oil Surplus Production Capacity (million barrels per day) 6.0 History Projections 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1991- 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1997 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, November…
  4. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 4
    World Oil Consumption Growth (million barrels per day) 3.0 History Projections 88 86 2.5 84 2.0 Rest of World 82 United States Oil Demand 1.5 80 World Oil Growth Demand 1.0 78 76 0.5 China 74 0.0 72 -0.5 70 1991- 2000…
  5. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 5
    Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks 60 History Projections 58 Previous 5-Year Min/Max Range 56 54 52 50 48 46 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
  6. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 6
    U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 16 14 History Projections 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2006
  7. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 7
    World Oil Price, 1980-2030 (2005 dollars per barrel) 80 History Projections 60 40 20 History AEO2006 AEO2007 P 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007 - Preliminary
  8. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 8
    U.S. Primary Energy Consumption, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 140 135 AEO2006 120 AEO2007 P 131 100 100 80 60 40 History Projections 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007…
  9. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 9
    U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar of Real Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030 (index, 1970 = 1) 1.2 History Projections 1.0 per dollar real GDP 0.8 per capita 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
  10. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 10
    U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 60 History Projections Liquid Fuels 50 40 Coal 30 Natural Gas 20 Nuclear 10 Renewables 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
  11. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 11
    U.S. Delivered Energy Consumption by Sector, 2005 and 2030 (quadrillion Btu) 45 2005 AEO2006 40 AEO2007 P 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Residential Commercial Industrial Transportation Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and…
  12. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 12
    U.S. Liquid Fuels Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (millions of barrels per day) 30 27.6 26.9 24.8 Electric Power 25 24.0 22.2 21.6 Industrial 20.7 20 Residential and Commercial 15 10 Transportation…
  13. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 13
    U.S. Liquid Products Consumption, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 Total 20 15 Motor Gasoline 10 Other 5 Distillate Jet Fuel Residual 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030…
  14. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 14
    U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu) 25 History Projections 20 Light-Duty Vehicles 15 10 Heavy-Duty Vehicles Air 5 Rail Water 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
  15. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 15
    U.S. New Light-Duty Vehicle Efficiency, 2005 and 2030 (miles per gallon) 35 2005 AEO2006 30 AEO2007 P 25 20 15 10 5 0 New Car New Light-Duty Truck New Light-Duty Vehicle Average Note: Does not include impact of…
  16. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 16
    U.S. Sales of Full Hybrid, Diesel, and Flex Fuel Vehicles, 2005 and 2030 (thousand units) 2,100 2005 AEO2006 1,600 AEO2007 P 1,100 600 100 Hybrids* Diesel Flex Fuel -400 *Only includes hybrids that provide tractive…
  17. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 17
    Sales of U.S. Non-Conventional Light-Duty Vehicles, 2015 and 2030 (thousand vehicles sold) 2,500 Hybrids Alcohol 2,000 Turbo Direct Injection Diesel Gaseous Electric 1,500 Fuel Cell 1,000 500 0 2015 2030 Annual…
  18. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 18
    U.S. Ethanol Production, 1981-2030 (billion gallons) 20 History Projections 15 Corn Ethanol AEO2007 P 10 AEO2006 5 Cellulosic Ethanol 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007 -…
  19. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 19
    U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030 (million barrels per day) 10 History Projections 8 6 Total 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 Deepwater Offshore Alaska Shallow Water Offshore 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030…
  20. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 20
    U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 20 61% Consumption Net Imports 15 60% 10 Domestic Supply 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020…
  21. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 21
    U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 26.9 26.3 26.9 26.1 25 24.0 23.4 22.0 7.5 6.4 5.9 Electric Power 7.2 20 6.4 5.5 5.8 15 10.0 9.8 Industrial 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.7 7.7…
  22. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 22
    U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 25 Consumption Net Imports 21% 20 16% Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2005 and 2030 (trillion cubic…
  23. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 23
    U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 10 History Projections 8 Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional 6 Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore 4 Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore…
  24. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 24
    Major Sources of Incremental U.S. Natural Gas Supply, 2006-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 28 26 Growth in Alaskan Production 24 Growth in LNG Imports 22 20 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 18 Base Production (all…
  25. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 25
    U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1990-2030 (trillion cubic feet) 5 History Projections 4 Overseas LNG 3 Canada 2 1 0 Mexico -1 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
  26. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 26
    U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2030 (2005 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 8 History Projections 7 6 5 4 3 History AEO2006 2 AEO2007 P 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and…
  27. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 27
    U.S. Coal Consumption by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (million short tons) 2,000 1,784 1,772 1,500 1,390 1,377 1,233 1,128 1,195 1,000 Electric Power 500 Coal to Liquid Other 0 2005 AEO2006 AEO2007 AEO2006…
  28. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 28
    U.S. Coal Minemouth Price, 1970-2030 (2005 dollars per short ton) 60 History Projections 50 History AEO2006 40 AEO2007 P 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007 -…
  29. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 29
    U.S. Electricity Sales by Sector, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 6,000 5,341 5,168 Transportation 5,000 4,629 4,528 Industrial 3,978 3,953 4,000 3,660 3,000 Commercial 2,000 1,000 Residential 0…
  30. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 30
    U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1980-2030 (billion kilowatthours) History Projections 3,000 Coal 2,000 Natural Gas 1,000 Nuclear Renewables Petroleum 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy…
  31. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 31
    U.S. Electricity Generating Capacity, including Combined Heat and Power, 2006-2030 (gigawatts) 1,200 New Nuclear New Renewable New Coal Needed 1,000 Capacity New Natural Gas Existing Other Fossil Steam 800 Existing Combustion…
  32. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 32
    U.S. Nonhydroelectric Renewable Electricity Generation, 2005, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours) 300 256 212 211 200 185 Geothermal 174 165 Solar Wind 100 92 Biomass MSW and Landfill Gas 0 2005 AEO2006…
  33. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 33
    U.S. Electricity Price, 1970-2030 (2005 cents per kilowatthour) 10 8 6 History AEO2006 AEO2007 P 4 2 History Projections 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and 2007 - Preliminary
  34. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 34
    U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030 (million metric tons) 8,114 in 2030 9,000 History Projections History 8,000 AEO2006 7,119 in 2020 AEO2007 P 7,000 6,365 in 2010 7,950 in 2030 6,000 6,944 in 2020 6,214 in…
  35. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 35
    Annual Energy Outlook 2007 reference case indicates that through 2030.... U.S. energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1 percent The energy efficiency of the economy is projected to improve at an average…
  36. Short and Long Term Outlook for Energy Markets – EIA – slide 36
    Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2007, reference case December 5th, report February 2006 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006…

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