Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook for Energy Markets Guy Caruso Administrator, Energy Information Administration guy.carusoeia.doe.gov Fueling the Future: Energy Policy in New England December 2, 2005 Boston, MA
Trends in New England Energy Consumption, 1989-2001 (quadrillion Btu) 2.5 2.0 Petroleum 1.5 1.0 Natural Gas 0.5 Renewable Energy Coal 0.0 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 State Energy Data System
New Englands Energy Picture in 2001 New England United States 4 quadrillion Btu Total Energy Consumption 96 quadrillion Btu 257 million Btu Consumption per Capita 338 million Btu 35 billion Total Energy Expenditures 694 billion…
Characteristics of Households in New England in 2001 New England United States 5.4 million Number of Households 107 million 54 percent With Natural Gas Access 73 percent 59 percent Using Air-Conditioning 76 percent 29 percent…
Major Events and World Oil Prices 1970-2004 dollars per barrel Saudis abandon swing Strong Demand Growth 45 producer role 40 Venezuela Iran-Iraq War Operation Unrest 35 Begins Desert 30 Storm OPEC cutbacks 25 Oil Embargo 20…
Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Crude Oil Production thousand barrels per day dollars per barrel History Projections 72 2,000 WTI Crude Oil Price Shut In Capacity 64.00 64.25 64.00 63.75 66 63.00 1,600 60 1,200 716 54 800 576…
Shut-In Gulf Coast Refinery Capacity thousand barrels per day cents per gallon History Projections 6,000 340 Retail Diesel Price Retail Gasoline Price 5,000 310 278 4,000 268 280 259 258 256 3,000 250 Shut In Capacity 238 237…
Tight Global Markets Result in High Crude Oil Prices 2005 dollars per barrel million barrels per day 70 History Projections 14 60 12 50 10 40 8 30 6 20 4 10 2 0 0 Jan-90 Jan-95 Jan-00 Jan-05 WTI Spot Price World Spare…
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 1.6 1.4 History Projections 1.2 3.2% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 OECD* Non-OECD Asia Former Soviet Union & E. Europe Other…
World Oil Demand Growth (million barrels per day) 3.0 2.5 History Projections 2.0 1.5 United States 1.0 0.5 China 0.0 -0.5 1991- 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1999 Average Short-Term Energy Outlook, November…
U.S. Petroleum Products Demand Growth (thousand barrels per day) 1000 History Projections 800 3.5% 600 2.2% 400 200 -0.8% 0 -200 -400 2004 2005 2006 Total Motor Gasoline Jet Fuel Fuel Oil Other Short-Term Energy…
Shut-In Federal Offshore Gulf Natural Gas Production billion cubic feet per day dollars per thousand cubic feet 10 History Projections 20 Henry Hub Price * Shut In Capacity 8 16 13.60 13.05 11.19 6 10.69 12 9.07 4.3 4 3.4 8…
U.S. Natural Gas Spot Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) 14 History Projections 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Short-Term Energy Outlook, November 2005
World Oil Price, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per barrel) 70 60 History High B 50 Reference 48.00 40 30 30.31 20 27.73 10 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 60 Petroleum History Projections 50 40 Natural Gas 30 Coal 20 10 Nuclear Nonhydropower Renewables 0 Hydropower 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual…
U.S. Petroleum Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (million barrels per day) 30 History Projections 25 20 Consumption 58% Net Imports 15 56% 10 Production 5 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025…
U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price, 1970-2025 (2003 dollars per thousand cubic feet) 6 History Projections 4.98 5.32 5 4 3 2 1 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook 2005
U.S. Natural Gas Production, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 30 History Projections 20% 25 Consumption Net Imports 15% 20 Production 15 Natural Gas Net Imports, 2003 and 2025 (trillion cubic…
Major Sources of Incremental Natural Gas Supply, 2003-2025 (trillion cubic feet) Growth in Alaskan Production 30 Growth in LNG Imports 25 Growth in Non-Associated Unconventional 20 2003 Production (all sources) 15…
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption by Sector, 1990-2025 (trillion cubic feet) 12 History Projections Industrial* 10 8 Electric Generators Residential 6 Commercial 4 2 Transportation** 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
U.S. Net Imports of Natural Gas, 1970-2025 (trillion cubic feet) History Projections 4 Liquefied Natural Gas 3.5 3 Canada 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 Mexico -11970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1970-2025 (billion kilowatthours) 3,000 History Projections Coal 2,000 Natural Gas 1,000 Nuclear Renewables Petroleum 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2025 Annual Energy Outlook…
World Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel Type, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 300 History Projections 250 38% 200 Share of Natural Gas 25% World Oil 24% 150 Total Coal 100 Renewables 8% 50 5% Nuclear 0 1970 1975 1980…
World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu) 350 History Projections 46% 300 42% 250 Mature Market Economies Share of 200 World Emerging Total 150 Economies 100 12% 50 Transitional Economies…
World Oil Consumption and Production, 2002, 2010, and 2025 (million barrels per day) Consumption Production 140 Mature Market Economies OPEC Emerging Asia Transitional Economies Other 119.2 Other 118.9 120 100 94.6 94.3 80 78.2…
World Oil Consumption by Region, 2002, 2015, and 2025 (million barrels per day) 70 62.2 60 56.9 57.0 49.4 50 46.3 40 28.7 30 20 10 0 2002 2015 2025 Central & South America Africa Middle East Other Emerging Asia China…
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2005 (billion barrels) Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait UAE Venezuela Russia Libya Nigeria United States China Qatar World Total = Mexico 1,278 Billion Barrels Algeria…
World Natural Gas Consumption by Region, 2002, 2015, and 2025 (trillion cubic feet) 120 105.4 100 92.3 80 70.2 60 50.7 35.6 40 22.0 20 0 2002 2015 2025 Central & South America Africa Middle East Other Emerging…
World Natural Gas Reserves, as of January 1, 2005, and Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025 (trillion cubic feet) Middle East Transitional Reserves Economies Cumulative Consumption, 2002-2025 Africa Emerging Asia North America…
World Shares of Energy Use for Electricity Generation, 2002-2025 (percent) 2002 History Projections 2010 2015 2020 2025 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables International Energy Annual 2003…
Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2005, December 2004 International Energy Outlook 2005, July 2005 Examples of Special Analyses Analysis…
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