The Future Electricity Fuels Mix: Key Drivers for Electric Power Conference & Exhibition May 15th, 2012 Baltimore, Maryland by Howard Gruenspecht, Acting Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics &…
Key results from the AEO2012 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged Projected growth of energy use slows over the projection period reflecting an extended economic recovery and increasing energy efficiency in…
What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel…
Energy use grows slowly over the projection in response to a slow and extended economic recovery and improving energy efficiency U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu per year Shares of total U.S. energy History 2010…
In 2010, U.S. electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable 2010 Total net generation: 2010 Non-hydro renewable 4,120 billion kWh net generation: Other gases 168 billion kWh 0.3% Conventional Nuclear…
The fuel mix for electricity generation varies widely across U.S. regions (2010) Share of Generation by Fuel, 2010 National Average Minimum Maximum Coal 45% 0% 80% Natural Gas 24% 3% 85% Nuclear 20% 0% 40% Renewables 10% 0% 50%…
While electricity consumption grows by 23% over the projection, the annual rate of growth slows percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 2010 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10…
Electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, led by growth in renewables and natural gas electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2010 Projections 6 5 27% 4 Natural gas 24% Renewables 16% 3…
Non-hydro renewable sources more than double between 2010 and 2035 non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2010 Projections 500 400 Advanced biofuels cogeneration Biomass 300 Power sector…
Examples of updated environmental retrofit costs Flue Gas Desulfurization Selective Catalytic Reduction (2010/kW) (2010 /kW) Capital Capital Costs VOM Costs VOM (/kW) (/MWh) (/kW) (/MWh) 300 MW 602 300 MW 203 500 MW 521 1.72 500 MW…
Global spot natural gas and crude oil prices vary widely Global spot natural gas and crude oil prices U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit 482 1,460 273 Source: EIA based on Bloomberg as of 5/4/2012 Howard…
Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect updated assessments U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 3000 Unproved shale gas 2500 Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) 2,214 Proved reserves (all types and…
Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 49% 20 Shale gas 23% 15 26% Tight gas 21% 10 9% Non-associated…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2010 Projections 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10 5 Net imports 0 -5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020…
EIAs natural gas price projections for AEO 2012 Early Release natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2010 dollars per million Btu History 2010 Projections 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025…
The average delivered price of coal to electricity generators varies widely across U.S. regions transport costs are a key reason 2010 Delivered coal prices, per million Btu 3.41 2.02 2.96 2.01 N/A 1.51 1.49 N/A 2.48…
Operating costs: existing plants with and without a value on carbon Fuel Cost for Existing Coal and Combined The crossover point for least-cost Cycle Natural Gas Units with a Value Placed on Carbon Dioxide Emissions dispatch of coal…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
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