Energy Markets and Projections For National Governors Association Governors Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
Market impacts from increased oil and natural gas production NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 2
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources U.S. tight oil production U.S. dry shale gas production million barrels of oil per day billion cubic feet per day Eagle…
U.S. is the largest producer of petroleum and natural gas in the world estimated U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia petroleum and natural gas production quadrillion Btu million barrels per day of oil equivalent 60.0 30 United States…
Natural gas surpasses coal as the largest generation source more quickly under high oil and gas resource assumptions billion kilowatthours 2012 2,500 History Projections 2,000 Reference coal 1,500 natural gas High Oil and Gas…
Implications of zero/low electricity demand growth NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 6
In EIAs AEO2014 Reference Case, growth in electricity use slows, but still increases by 29% from 2012 to 2040 percent growth Annual Growth (3-year compounded annual growth rate) 2012 Period Electricity use GDP 14% History 1950s 9.8 4.1…
More fossil capacity is retired in the Low Growth case U.S. electric power sector capacity retirements gigawatts (cumulative) Reference case Low Growth case 120 Coal 100 Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewable / Other 80 60 40…
Capacity additions decline dramatically in the Low Growth case U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts 2012 Reference case 30 History Projections Other Renewables Solar 25 Wind Natural gas/oil 20 Nuclear Hydro /…
Projected end-use electricity prices are lower in the Low Growth case Average end-use electricity price, all sectors 2012 cents per kilowatthour 2012 11.5 History Projections 11 Reference case 10.5 10 Low Growth case…
Findings from EIAs updated Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 11
The CBECS building population is diverse and smaller building types are the most common Number of buildings (thousand) 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Office Warehouse and storage Average Service Building Mercantile Size…
New commercial buildings are larger, on average, than old commercial buildings Average building size by year constructed Thousand ft2 2000 to 2012: 20 Average = 19,100 ft2 1960 to 1999: 18 Average = 16,300 ft2 16 Before 1960: 14…
Buildings over 100,000 square feet make up only about 2% of the building count but about 35% of the total floorspace 0.1% 0.7% 100% 1.6% 3.6% 8.1% Size of buildings (ft2) 90% 6.0% 12.3% Over 500,000 80% 15.9% 14.2% 200,001 to…
About half the building types show an increase in the number of buildings from 2003 to 2012 in order of largest to smallest relative growth from 2003 to 2012 Vacant (**) Other (**) Warehouse Warehouseand andstorage storage (*)…
Growth scenarios for renewables NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 16
U.S. production grows rapidly, particularly natural gas, renewables, and liquids in the near term U.S. energy production quadrillion Btu History 2012 Projections 120 2025 2040 100 80 34% 38% 60 Natural gas 31% 11% 12%…
What do EIAs Annual Energy Outlook 2014 projections say about the role of renewable electricity in the generation mix Net generation by fuel source in the AEO2014 Reference case billion kilowatthours 6,000 non-hydro 5,000 renewables…
Projected renewable generation market shares vary significantly under alternative assumptions Renewable share of electricity generation in eight cases billion kilowatthours 30% Reference GHG25 25% No Sunset Low Renewable Technology…
Uncertainty in renewable projections is skewed to the upside of the Reference case U.S. non-hydro renewable electricity generation in eight cases (2005-40) billion kilowatthours 1,200 GHG25 history projection No Sunset Low Renewable…
How EIA helps to provide information on current energy issues NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 21
Crude exports The United States exported 268,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in April (the latest data available from the U.S. Census Bureau), the highest level of exports in 15 years. Exports have increased sharply since…
Biofuels On November 15, 2013, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for the 2014 Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS). The RFS program, established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and later…
Propane Propane is produced from natural gas at processing plants and from crude oil at refineries. Propane produced from natural gas has been the fastest-growing component of overall U.S. propane supply. Propane production in the…
EIA data and market reports on propane, heating oil, biofuels, oil and natural gas Propane, Heating Oil, Gasoline and Diesel o Weekly Petroleum Status Report and This Week in Petroleum o State Heating Oil and Propane Program (SHOPP) o…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
Supplementary slides NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 27
EIA Analysis on Crude Oil Markets Work is underway on the following aspects of relevance to policymakers: changes in pipeline systems to accommodate changing crude and product flows and movements of oil by rail refinery utilization…
CBECS provides essential, unique information The CBECS is the only independent, statistically representative source of national-level data on the characteristics and energy use of commercial buildings* Mandated by Congress, it has…
AEO2014 projects more coal-fired power plant retirements by 2016 than have been scheduled U.S. coal plants under economic pressure - low natural gas prices , slow electricity demand growth The Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014)…
Key takeaways on coal/natural gas substitution in power generation Coal-to-gas switching in recent years has been driven by lower natural gas prices resulting from rapid growth in shale gas production, inflexible coal prices, and high…
What might a low electricity demand growth future look like Assumptions used to achieve low electricity demand growth: Applied best available technology to buildings, and layered on greater industrial motor efficiency Assumptions are…
TheAEO2014 includes an analysis of renewable projections by varying key assumptions, including policy Relevant AEO2014 Key uncertainties side cases Technology How much will it cost to build and Low Renewable uncertainty operate a…
Expanded EIA-914 proposal Current oil and gas production data is necessary to address questions about the very rapid changes occurring in quantity and quality of domestic output Collect monthly data on oil and natural gas production…
EIA-914 expansion will add 20 states/areas to oil and 14 states to current coverage of natural gas Lower 48 states expanded survey coverage: Natural gas: 92% Oil: 89% NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24,…
EIA product highlight: State Energy Portal EIAs State Energy Portal gives users detailed portraits of energy production, consumption, and energy prices at the state level The State Energy Portal features almost 90 key data…
EIA adjusts social media tools to meet state needs NGA Governors' Advisors Energy Policy Institute July 24, 2014 37
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