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Annual Energy Outlook – EIA

EIA · Dec 16, 2010 · 40 slides

Investor presentation from the Shale Experts oil & gas presentation and slide database. Every page is imaged and its text indexed for search across operators, plays, basins and time.

Slides

  1. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 1
    Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Case The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies December 16, 2010 Washington, DC Richard Newell, Administrator
  2. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 2
    Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increased U.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas Industrial…
  3. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 3
    What is included (and excluded) in developing EIAs Reference case projections Generally assumes current laws and regulations excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel…
  4. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 4
    Key updates included in the AEO2011 Reference case Natural gas and oil supply More than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources Updated offshore data and…
  5. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 5
    Global energy consumption Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 5
  6. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 6
    Non-OECD countries account for vast majority of the nearly 50% projected increase in global energy use by 2035 energy consumption quadrillion Btu 800 739 Non-OECD 687 OECD w/o U.S. 639 U.S. 590 600 543 495 62% 400 50%…
  7. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 7
    Overview of U.S. energy supply and demand Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 7
  8. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 8
    Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels; demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors 2009 total U.S. energy use = 94.6 quadrillion Btu Energy supply Energy demand Industrial Nuclear 30% Industrial 9%…
  9. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 9
    Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035 U.S. primary energy consumption Shares of total U.S. energy quadrillion Btu per year History 2009 Projections 125 Renewables…
  10. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 10
    Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 13% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger quadrillion Btu 200 Constant intensity Structural -33% 150 change Constant efficiency -13% Efficiency change…
  11. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 11
    Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline; per-capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 History 2009 Projections 1.75 1.50 1.25 1.00 Energy per capita 0.75 Energy per dollar GDP 0.50 CO2 per dollar GDP 0.25 0.00…
  12. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 12
    In the AEO2011 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions grow almost 6% over 2005 levels by 2035 billion metric tons carbon dioxide History 2005 2009 Projections 7 6 Energy-related CO2 emissions 5 4 3 2005 2020 2035…
  13. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 13
    Electricity Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 13
  14. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 14
    In 2009, electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable 2009 Total net generation: 2009 Non-hydro renewable 3,953 billion kWh net generation: 141 billion kWh Other gases 0.3% Conventional Nuclear…
  15. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 15
    While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate of growth has slowed percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 2009 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10 2000-2009 0.5…
  16. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 16
    The projected electricity mix gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, with generation from natural gas rising 37% and renewables rising 73% electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 6 5 4…
  17. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 17
    Updated electric power plant capital costs show increases for nuclear, coal, and wind, while solar costs decline overnight capital cost 2009 dollars per kilowatt 7000 AEO 2010 AEO 2011 -25% 6000 +39% +37% -10% 5000 -2% 4000…
  18. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 18
    Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting 23% of projected electricity generation growth non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 450 400 350 300 Biomass 250 200…
  19. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 19
    Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035 2009 capacity Capacity additions Nuclear 2009 to 2035 101 (10%) Coal 313 (30%) Hydropower* Nuclear Hydropower* 3 (1%) 6…
  20. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 20
    Natural gas Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 20
  21. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 21
    U.S. shale gas production increased 14-fold over the last decade; reserves tripled over the last few years annual shale gas production trillion cubic feet per year 5.0 Eagle Ford (TX) 4.0 Marcellus (PA and other Eastern states)…
  22. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 22
    Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet 2750 2552 2500 2250 827 Unproved shale gas 2000 1750 1500 Unproved 1250 other gas…
  23. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 23
    30% domestic gas production growth outpaces 16% consumption growth, leading to declining imports U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 1% 25 6% Consumption Net imports 11% 20 Domestic supply 15…
  24. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 24
    Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 1% 25 Net imports 11% 20 45% 14% Shale gas 15 20%…
  25. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 25
    Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; industrial and electric power use drives future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year History 2009 Projections 30 25 35% 20 Industrial* 32% 15 29%…
  26. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 26
    A number of key economic and market drivers underpin natural gas consumption growth TCF gas Sector consumption Growth Key drivers (2009-2035) 2009 2035 Industrial, 7.3 9.3 26% +187% combined heat-and-power including generation; +30%…
  27. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 27
    Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past years due to an expanded shale gas resource base natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2009 dollars per million Btu 2009 10 History Projections 9 Updated AEO2009 8 7…
  28. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 28
    Oil and other liquid fuels Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 28
  29. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 29
    Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily; the full AEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel History 2009 Projections 225 High oil price 200 175 150…
  30. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 30
    Unconventional sources more than triple globally, but conventional petroleum continues to comprise the vast majority of liquids supply global liquids production million barrels per day 120 History 2009 Projections 100 40% 80 OPEC…
  31. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 31
    U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic productionincluding biofuelsand greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day History 2009 Projections 25 4% Biofuels including imports 20…
  32. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 32
    Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key sources of increased domestic liquids supply U.S. liquid fuels million barrels per day Total consumption Net crude oil imports Net product imports Crude oil…
  33. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 33
    Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion gallon RFS target by 2030 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons 45 Legislated RFS in 2022 40 Biodiesel 35 Net imports RFS with Other 30 adjustments under Advanced 25…
  34. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 34
    New light duty vehicle fuel economy achieves almost 38 mpg by 2035 in the Reference case miles per gallon History 2009 Projections 45 40 35 30 25 Summary of standards 20 2012-2016: 34.1 mpg CAFE average (based on NHTSA vehicle…
  35. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 35
    Most transport fuel growth is in light and heavy duty vehicles U.S. transportation energy consumption million barrels per day oil equivalent History 2009 Projections 16 12 64% Light-duty vehicles 67% 8 4 Heavy-duty vehicles…
  36. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 36
    Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services Growth 2009 2035 (2009-2035) Light duty vehicles Fuel consumption (million barrels per day oil equivalent) 8.9 10.2 15% Number of…
  37. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 37
    Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck sales millions History Projections 20 15 Conventional gasoline Diesel 10 Gaseous and fuel cell Mild hybrid electric Hybrid…
  38. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 38
    Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increased U.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas Industrial…
  39. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 39
    For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html 2011 EIA Energy Conference April…
  40. Annual Energy Outlook – EIA – slide 40
    Some supply sources and demand sectors are strongly linked, while others are more dispersed 2009 Richard Newell, December 16, 2010 Source: EIA Annual Energy Review 2009 40

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