International Energy Outlook 2013 For U.S. Senate Briefing August 12, 2013 Washington, DC by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Key findings of the International Energy Outlook 2013 With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Half of the increase is attributed to China and India. Renewable…
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year 7 Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4…
Non-OECD Asia accounts for 60 percent of the world increase in energy use world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History Projections 400 OECD Other Non-OECD Non-OECD Asia 300 200 100 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030…
By 2040, Chinas energy use will be double the U.S. level; Indias a little more than half despite its faster GDP growth energy consumption by selected country quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 220 200 China 150…
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 250 28% 27% 200 Liquids 34% 23% Coal (including biofuels) Share of…
World petroleum and other liquids production million barrels per day 120 100 OPEC 80 60 Rest of non-OECD 40 Russia 20 Rest of OECD Canada United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA, International…
World natural gas production trillion cubic feet 200 180 160 Rest of non-OECD 140 China 120 MENA 100 80 Russia 60 Rest of OECD 40 Canada 20 United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: The MENA region…
World coal production billion short tons 12 World 9 Other non-OECD Asia Australia India 6 United States 3 China 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Note: Indonesia accounted for 72 percent of the total coal production in…
World net hydropower and other renewable electricity generation trillion killowatthours 10 9 Rest of non-OECD 8 India 7 Brazil 6 5 China 4 3 Rest of OECD 2 1 Canada United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
World net nuclear electricity generation trillion killowatthours 6 5 China 4 Rest of World India 3 Russia OECD Europe 2 Other Asia 1 Japan United States 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Source: EIA,…
Industrial sector energy consumption in China China industrial sector energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu 100 Total 80 60 Coal 40 Electricity 20 Liquids Natural gas Renewables 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035…
Gross output curves shape Chinas industrial coal and liquids use China gross output for iron production China gross output for chemical production real 2005 dollars (MER) real 2005 dollars (MER) 1,600 4,500 1,400 4,000 3,500 1,200…
Liquid Fuels Markets Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013 14
OPEC market share grows after 2025 world liquids production million barrels per day History 2010 Projections 70 60 62 50 Non-OPEC petroleum liquids 50 49 40 35 OPEC petroleum liquids 30 20 10 Nonpetroleum 2 5 0 1990 1995…
Non-OPEC petroleum supply growth is concentrated in five countries non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day 14 2010 2040 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Brazil Canada Kazakhstan United States Russia OECD Europe…
Production profiles of the three most petroleum-rich countries in the Middle East are uncertain liquids production in Middle East OPEC in four Reference case scenarios million barrels per day 2040 Iran & Iraq success; Saudi Arabia…
Natural Gas Markets Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013 18
Non-OECD nations account for over 70 percent of the growth in natural gas consumption world natural gas consumption billion cubic trillion cubic feet feet per day 120 330 OECD Non-OECD 100 275 80 220 60 165 40 110 20 55…
Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East, and the United States account for the largest increases in natural gas production growth in natural gas production 2010-2040 trillion cubic feet Non-OECD Europe/Eurasia 19 Middle East 16 United…
Electricity Markets Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013 21
In electricity generation, renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing sources, but coal still fuels the largest share in 2040 world electricity generation by fuel billion kilowatthours 45.0 History Projections 36% Coal…
China accounts for more than 40 percent of the global net increase in nuclear capacity world nuclear electricity generating capacity, 2010 and 2040 gigawatts China OECD Europe 2010 2040 OECD Americas Other non-OECD Russia…
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013 24
Non-OECD Asia accounts for over 70 percent of the world increase in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons History Projections 35.0 Non-OECD Asia Other Non-OECD OECD…
Coal continues to account for the largest share of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions throughout the projection world energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by fuel billion metric tons History 2010 Projections 50.0 40.0 30.0…
There are many issues that increase uncertainty Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China The timing of Japans full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review…
Supplementary Slides Adam Sieminski, IEO2013 August 12, 2013 29
IEO2013 includes 4 alternative cases that examine the sensitivity to different GDP growth and oil prices Reference case World GDP increases by 3.6 percent per year between 2010 and 2040 and energy consumption rises to 820 quadrillion…
Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily as the global economy expands and the call on OPEC rises Brent crude oil price paths real 2011 dollars per barrel History 2011 Projections 250 237 High Oil Price 200 163 150 Reference…
Non-OECD nations drive the increase in energy demand but per capita use is still below OECD levels world energy consumption quadrillion Btu History 2010 Projections 600 0.07 500 Non-OECD 400 0.05 300 0.20 0.20 OECD 200 100…
Brazilian and U.S. biofuels and Chinese CTL account for nearly 65 percent of the total increase in nonpetroleum supplies world nonpetroleum liquids production in 2010 and 2040 million barrels per day 2010 Biofuels Brazil United…
Growth in OPEC production comes mainly from the Middle East OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day 40.0 35.0 30.0 2010 2040 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Middle East North Africa West Africa South America Source:…
Shale oil and gas have the potential to dramatically alter world energy markets map of basins with assessed shale oil and gas formations, as of May 2013 Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI Adam Sieminski, IEO2013…
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources Shale oil Shale gas Rank Country Billion barrels Rank Country Trillion cubic feet 1 Russia 75 1 China 1,115 2 United States 58 2 Argentina 802 3 China 32 3 Algeria 707…
Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane are increasingly important to the United States, China and Canada natural gas production trillion cubic feet 40 30 Shale gas 20 Coalbed methane 10 Tight gas All other 0 2010 2040 2010…
Btu or British thermal units, can be used as an energy measurement across different energy sources One Btu is approximately equal to the energy released in the burning of a wood match. One million Btu equals about 8 gallons of motor…
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