Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. For Consumer Energy Alliance February 21, 2013 Washington, D.C. By Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent…
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040 Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy…
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Shares of total U.S. energy History 2000 2011 Projections 120…
There are three main drivers of oil and natural gas production and resource estimates Economics Geology Technology Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 4
These three drivers impact resource estimation metrics differently over time in an iterative process Theory Experiment Practice Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth Geology Recompletions Drilling costs Technology Price of gas…
EIAs focus is on the timing of production; the modeling focuses on these parameters average initial production (IP) rate per well average decline curve (can vary by region and vintage) IP & decline curve define the Estimated…
Technically recoverable resources (TRR) result from the well analysis Area (acres) drainage area of a well % of area not yet drilled % area with potential distribution of EUR/well (see previous slide, this is the area under the…
U.S. Shale Gas Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 8
Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new information, a combination of assessments and EIA updates U.S. dry gas resources USGS Marcellus trillion cubic feet Assessment 3000 Benchmarking Unproved shale gas Unproved…
Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day 30 Rest of US Marcellus 25 Haynesville Eagle Ford 20 Bakken Woodford 15 Fayetteville Barnett 10…
An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production million cubic feet per year 2,000 Cumulative production = EUR Haynesville 100%…
For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 12
Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Shale gas 20 15 Non-associated offshore Tight gas 10 Alaska Coalbed methane…
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections 35 *Includes combined heat-and-power and…
Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel) marine and rail to come U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu History 2011 Projections 3.0 2.5 28% 2.0 Gas to liquids 1.5…
Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020 U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet History 2011 Projections 35 30 25 Consumption 20 Domestic supply 15 10…
U.S. Tight Oil Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 17
Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels 250 Unproved Alaska…
Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day 2.0 1.8 Eagle Ford Bakken 1.6 Granite Wash Bonespring 1.4 Monterey Woodford 1.2 1.0…
U.S. tight oil production by selected plays U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 1.0 0.9 Bakken Eagle Ford 0.8 Woodford 0.7 Austin Chalk Spraberry 0.6 Niobrara 0.5 Avalon/Bone Springs 0.4…
U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019 U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 8 STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil…
U.S. import share of liquid fuels declines due to increased production of tight oil and gas liquids, and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels supply million barrels per day History 2011 Projections 25 20 45% Net petroleum and…
More stringent standards for liquids consumption in light-duty vehicles made a big difference in EIAs demand projections Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day 10 AEO2012 8 AEO2013 6 4 2 0 2010…
Global Shale Gas and Tight Oil Adam Sieminski February 21, 2013 24
EIA/ARI study to update & expand coverage of shale gas assessment and identifying prospective tight oil formations ,not assessed Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas/ Adam…
Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and tight oil Resource quantities and distribution Surface vs. mineral rights Risk appetite of industry participants Infrastructure/technology Environmental…
Global tight oil production comparisons IEO2013 DRAFT BP Energy Outlook 2030 12 million barrels per day 10 Australia China Russia Argentina 8 Mexico Canada United States 6 4 2 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source:…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo International Energy Outlook…
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