Shale Gas and the U.S. Energy Outlook Recent Developments for The Energy Council Global Energy and Environmental Issues Conference Santa Fe, New Mexico December 10, 2010 Howard Gruenspecht, Deputy Administrator 1 1…
Shale Gas: Growth of Production, Proved Reserves, and Technically Recoverable Resources Howard Gruenspecht, U.S. Canada ECM, Dec 2 2010 2
U.S. shale gas production has increased 14-fold in 10 years annual shale gas production trillion cubic feet 5.0 4.5 4.0 Antrim Barnett Fayetteville Woodford Haynesville Marcellus 3.5 Eagle Ford 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0…
Shale gas production has continued to rise rapidly over the past year billion cubic feet per day 16 Barnett Shale Fayetteville Woodford 14 Haynesville Marcellus Eagleford 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan- Mar- May- Jul- Sep- Nov-…
In 2009, U.S. proved reserves of natural gas Increased by more than 11 percent, despite lower natural gas prices Source: EIA, Summary: U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids Howard Gruenspecht, U.S. Canada ECM, Dec 2…
The 76 percent increase in proved reserves of shale gas in 2009, accounted for nearly all of the growth in total U.S. proved reserves Proved Reserves and Production in U.S. Shale Gas Plays, 2008 and 2009 (billion cubic feet) 2008…
U.S. proved reserves of natural gas at the end of 2009 were at their highest level since 1971 trillion cubic feet 300 300 250 250 200 200 U.S. Total 150 150 Lower 48 Onshore 100 100 50 50 Federal Offshore Alaska 0 0…
Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources trillion cubic feet 2250 2000 Unproved shale gas & coalbed methane 1750 1500 1250 Unproved 1000 Carbonate and Sandstone…
Estimates from multiple sources suggest a vast resource of technically recoverable shale gas trillion cubic feet 1200 1135 1000 842 800 688 650 600 385 400 347 200 0 Navigant ICF AEO2010 IHS-CERA MIT ARI Jul 2008…
The import share of U.S. natural gas supply is expected to decline as domestic supply grows trillion cubic feet 30 History Projections 25 Consumption 6% Net imports 13% 20 Domestic supply 15 10 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010…
Demand and Implications for Coal Howard Gruenspecht, U.S. Canada ECM, Dec 2 2010 11
Electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable in 2009 2009 Total net generation: 2009 Non-hydro renewable net generation: 3,953 billion kWh 141 billion kWh Other gases Nuclear 0.3% 20.2% Conventional…
Growth in electricity use continues to slow percent growth (3-year rolling average) Period Annual Growth History 1950s 9.8 14 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 12 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 10 2000-2009 0.5 2009-2035 1.0 8 Projections 6 4 2 0…
The projected electricity generation mix in the reference case gradually shifts to lower carbon options electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year History 2009 Projections 6 5 4 Natural gas 23% Renewable 3 10% 2…
Several factors, including regulatory changes, could shift the fuel mix and/or emissions from electric generation relative to the Reference case Pending and possible regulatory policies addressing non-GHG emissions from coal-fired…
Key factors affecting the response to regulations affecting existing generation facilities in the electric power sector Capital cost estimates for environmental retrofits at existing coal plants All else equal, higher costs make…
Key factors (continued) Projected fuel costs play a large role in the competitiveness of certain technologies, such as gas-fired generation The decline in both current and projected natural gas prices in recent years increases the…
operating costs: existing plants with and w/o climate policies Fuel Cost for Existing Coal and Combined The crossover point for least- Cycle Natural Gas Units with a Value cost dispatch of coal and natural Placed on Carbon Dioxide…
For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html International Energy Outlook…
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